Precipitation–temperature changes and evolution of a small glacier in the southeastern European Alps during the last 90 years

Abstract

Very small glaciers (area <0.1 km 2 ) have received increased scientific attention during recent years, both for their rapid responses to the climate forcing and because they are characterized by microclimatic conditions, often marginal to glacier formation. They are particularly sensitive to climate changes and characterized by a great mass turnover, particularly evident in maritime areas with high precipitation. Here we consider the evolution from 1920 of the 'Canin Eastern Glacier' (Italian Southeastern Alps) in order to correlate its evolution to the precipitation-temperature trends. We reconstructed a precipitation-temperature record at the altitude of the glacier, filling a lack of knowledge in this alpine sector. We observed a decrease in the mean annual precipitation of 10% in 90 years and a warming trend of 0.1 ∘ C decade −1 since 1851, and of 0.7 ∘ C decade −1 in the last 20 years. An inverse correlation between precipitation and mean air temperature during summer and ablation periods was also observed. Glacier dynamics revealed a phase of stability between 1945 and 1985 that seems to be a peculiar characteristic of this area. Moreover, through a general regression model the glacial terminus variations seem to be statistically influenced only by winter precipitation. This fact opens interesting perspectives for the possible future evolution of this small glacier and, more in general, to other small glaciers in maritime areas in regard to climate change scenarios.

Analysis of the mass balance time series of glaciers in the Italian Alps

“…There are notably high correlations in the Ortles Cevedale between Careser and La Mare and between Fontana Bianca and La Mare glaciers. A similarly high correlation is observed between Pendente and Malavalle glaciers in Val Ridanna, whereas there is a much lower correlation between the two glaciers of the Gran Paradiso Group, which suggests that differences in local topo-climatic factors can be decisive on such small ice bodies (e.g., Kuhn, 1995;DeBeer and Sharp, 2009;Carturan et al, 2013c;Scotti et al, 2014;Colucci and Guglielmin, 2015). For most glaciers, B a is more correlated to B s than to B w (Table 4) ablation.…”

Geomorphic influence on small glacier response to post‐Little Ice Age climate warming: Julian Alps, Europe

“…The 1981–2010 mean daily air temperatures (MdATs) at 2200 m a.s.l. from Colucci and Guglielmin () were averaged to obtain an annual daily temperature curve. The 1981–2010 MdAT was extrapolated to the median elevations of all the glacial bodies using a normal lapse rate of 0.0065 °C m −1 .…”

“…The calculation was performed for each year and the annual T sum at the ELA was obtained at the ‘right’ elevation. The reconstructed monthly temperature at 2200 m from Colucci and Guglielmin () was used, with a normal lapse rate of 0.0065 °C m −1 . The standard error of Equation is ±200 mm, so the calculation was performed using both extremes to determine the standard error in T sum and, as consequence, the ELA error.…”

“…Hughes et al , ; Grunewald and Scheithauer, ; Hughes, ; Djurovič, ; Hughes, ). Additional very small glaciers in the region, about 30 km west of Triglav, have been investigated in detail recently (Carturan et al , ; Triglav Čekada et al , ; Colucci and Guglielmin, ; Colucci et al , ). These glaciers are all located in the same climatic area, characterized by some of the highest precipitation rates in the European Alps.…”

Long-term air temperature changes in Ljubljana (Slovenia) in comparison to Trieste (Italy) and Zagreb (Croatia)

“…The data were used in several studies dealing with the eastern part of the Alps (e.g. Auer et al, 2007;Brunetti et al, 2009;Colucci and Guglielmin, 2014;Gabrovec et al, 2014).…”