Precipitation prediction based on variational mode decomposition combined with the crested porcupine optimization algorithm for long short-term memory model

Abstract

Accurate precipitation prediction is very important for meteorological disaster prevention, water resources management, and agricultural decision making. To improve the accuracy of precipitation prediction, a hybrid model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD), crested porcupine optimization algorithm (CPO), and long short-term memory model (LSTM) is proposed in this paper. The model first uses VMD to decompose the precipitation time series into intrinsic mode functions of different frequencies to capture the multi-scale characteristics of precipitation data. Then, the CPO algorithm is used to optimize LSTM adaptive parameters to improve the global search ability and robustness of the model. Finally, the decomposed precipitation component is input into the LSTM network to learn the spatiotemporal dependence relationship and improve the ability of long-term prediction. The experimental results show that compared with the traditional LSTM model, CPO-LSTM model, and VMD-LSTM model, the hybrid model achieves better performance in many evaluation indices and effectively improves the accuracy of precipitation prediction. The application of the model can provide an effective tool for the fields of meteorology and water resources management, as well as provide new ideas for related research.