Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

Du, Haibo; Alexander, Lisa V.; Donat, Markus G.; Lippmann, Tanya; Srivastava, Arvind K.; Salinger, Jim; Kruger, Andries; Choi, Gwangyong; He, Hong S.; Fujibe, Fumiaki; Rusticucci, Matilde; Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Manzanas, Rodrigo; Rehman, Shafiqur; Abbas, Farhat; Zhai, Panmao; Yabi, Ibouraïma; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Wang, Shengzhong; Batbold, Altangerel; Oliveira, Paula Regina de; Adrees, Muhammad; Hou, Wei; Zong, Shengwei; Silva, Cláudio Moisés Santos e; Lúcio, Paulo Sérgio; Wu, Zhengfang

doi:10.1029/2019gl081898

Cited by 98 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Multiple lines of evidence—from basic thermodynamic arguments to simulations using complex coupled Earth system models—agree that the exponential increase in the water vapor‐holding capacity of the atmosphere should enable a substantial increase in global precipitation extremes (Trenberth et al, 2003). Recent evidence has increasingly borne out these predictions, and increased occurrence of heavy precipitation events has now been observed both within the contiguous United States (Wright et al, 2019a) and globally (Du et al, 2019). Using newly developed climate attribution frameworks (e.g., Diffenbaugh, 2020), the detected regional and global increases in precipitation extremes have been directly linked to anthropogenic climate change (CC).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States

et al. 2020

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Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subsequent population exposure. Here, we quantify changes in population exposure to flood hazard across the contiguous United States. We combine simulations from a climate model large ensemble and a high-resolution hydrodynamic flood model-allowing us to directly assess changes across a wide range of extreme precipitation magnitudes and accumulation timescales. We report a mean increase in the 100-year precipitation event of~20% (magnitude) and >200% (frequency) in a high warming scenario, yielding ã 30-127% increase in population exposure. We further find a nonlinear increase for the most intense precipitation events-suggesting accelerating societal impacts from historically rare or unprecedented precipitation events in the 21st century. Plain Language Summary Heavy rainfall is increasing globally due to human-caused global warming. However, it is still unclear how these increases in heavy rainfall might affect flood risk. In this paper, we investigate how global warming and population changes together may be affecting the number of people at risk from floods in the United States. We combine simulations from a climate model and flood model-allowing us to consider a wide range of heavy rainfall events. We report a~20% increase in the size and a >200% increase in the frequency of very heavy and rare rainfall events, which leads to a~30-127% increase in the number of people at risk from floods. Finally, we find that the heaviest rainfall events increase by the widest margin-suggesting the possibility of major increases in damage and disruption caused by severe floods in the 21st century.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States

et al. 2020

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“…Extreme weather events are one of the main topics studied related to climate change. Future projections released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that these events will become increasingly frequent and intense in several regions of the world, including in areas of Northeast Brazil (NEB; Du et al ., ). Extreme weather events can cause waves of heat and cold, floods, landslides, droughts and more.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial distribution of the level of return of extreme precipitation events in Northeast Brazil

Rodrigues

Gonçalves

Spyrides

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study aimed to estimate levels of return of extreme daily precipitation events, associating them with natural disasters in Northeast Brazil (NEB), a region characterized by different climatic conditions and low rates of social and economic development. For this, generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models were adjusted to the daily extreme precipitation data estimated by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product of the multisatellite precipitation analysis for a period of 16 years (2000-2015). In addition, the estimates of the GPD model were compared using two data sources, TRMM and pluviometer. The investigation showed that the results of the GPD model estimated by means of the extreme data from the rain gauge and the TRMM were statistically the same, with 95% confidence. Thus, using the data referring to the 2,082 grid points of the TRMM, it was possible to map the spatial distribution of the estimates of the levels of return of extreme precipitation to the return periods of 2, 5 and 10 years, per seasonal period. In general, the results indicated that the intensity of expected extreme precipitation depends on the seasonal period and the place of occurrence of precipitation. The eastern NEB stood out as the region where the highest intensities of extreme precipitation are expected. Extreme precipitation values of up to 178 mm are expected in 2 years. The areas where natural disasters occurred in the years 2016, 2017 and 2018 are similar to those in which the highest rainfall intensities are expected. The results of this study can allow the evaluation of the spatial distribution of risks related to extreme precipitation events, and therefore, support the planning of regional public policies and environmental management for the prevention of natural disasters in NEB. K E Y W O R D S diaries precipitation, generalized Pareto distribution, natural disaster, TRMM 1 | INTRODUCTION Extreme weather events are one of the main topics studied related to climate change. Future projections released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that these events will become increasingly frequent and intense in several regions of the world, including in areas of Northeast Brazil (NEB; Du et al., 2019). Extreme weather events can cause waves of heat and cold, floods, landslides, droughts and more.

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“…Sillmann et al 2013). In parallel or subsequently to these efforts, other groups have also defined suites of (daily or monthly) indices for regional and global projects or analyses (Lloyd-Hughes and Saunders 2002, Giorgi et al 2011, Du et al 2019 which have supplemented or complemented those recommended by ETCCDI (although these remain at the core of many index lists). Importantly, more impacts-relevant indices are now being developed that can be used for sector applications such as health and agriculture (Alexander and Herold 2015).…”

Section: The History Of Use Of Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, some other indices can characterize specific properties of the precipitation timeseries, such as day-to-day dryness or wetness persistence (e.g. Moon et al 2018, Du et al 2019, and some are more focussed on sector impacts with user-specified thresholds (Alexander and Herold 2015).…”

Section: Types Of Indicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the use of indices to study extreme precipitation on sub-daily and daily timescales

Alexander

Fowler

Bador

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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While there are obstacles to the exchange of long-term high temporal resolution precipitation data, there have been fewer barriers to the exchange of so-called 'indices'. These are derived from daily and sub-daily data and measure aspects of precipitation frequency, duration and intensity that could be used for the study of extremes. This paper outlines the history of the rationale and use of these indices, the types of indices that are frequently used and the advantages and pitfalls in analysing them. Moving forward, satellite precipitation products are now showing the potential to provide global climate indices to supplement existing products using longer-term in situ gauge records but we suggest that to advance this area differences between data products, limitations in satellite-based estimation processes, and the inherent challenges of scale need to be better understood.

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Precipitation From Persistent Extremes is Increasing in Most Regions and Globally

Cited by 98 publications

References 31 publications

Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States

Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States

Spatial distribution of the level of return of extreme precipitation events in Northeast Brazil

On the use of indices to study extreme precipitation on sub-daily and daily timescales

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