Precipitation Evolution over Belgium by 2100 and Sensitivity to Convective Schemes Using the Regional Climate Model MAR

Abstract

The first aim of this study is to determine if changes in precipitation and more specifically in convective precipitation are projected in a warmer climate over Belgium. The second aim is to evaluate if these changes are dependent on the convective scheme used. For this purpose, the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) was forced by two general circulation models (NorESM1-M and MIROC5) with five convective schemes (namely: two versions of the Bechtold schemes, the Betts–Miller–Janjić scheme, the Kain–Fritsch scheme, and the modified Tiedtke scheme) in order to assess changes in future precipitation quantities/distributions and associated uncertainties. In a warmer climate (using RCP8.5), our model simulates a small increase of convective precipitation, but lower than the anomalies and the interannual variability over the current climate, since all MAR experiments simulate a stronger warming in the upper troposphere than in the lower atmospheric layers, favoring more stable conditions. No change is also projected in extreme precipitation nor in the ratio of convective precipitation. While MAR is more sensitive to the convective scheme when forced by GCMs than when forced by ERA-Interim over the current climate, projected changes from all MAR experiments compare well.

Weather-Based Predictive Modeling of Cercospora beticola Infection Events in Sugar Beet in Belgium

“…Hourly weather data [air temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), and rainfall (R)] from January 2018 to December 2020 were computed using the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) version 3.9 [ 33 , 34 ]. The MAR was run at a horizontal resolution of 5-km over a domain covering the whole Belgium, with the first 24 h from the daily forecast run (00h GMT) of the global weather forecast model Global Forecast System (GFS) being used as the lateral boundary conditions of MAR.…”

L'assimilation de la fonte détectée par les satellites augmente la fonte simulée par MAR sur le secteur d'Amundsen (Antarctique de l’Ouest)

“…MAR has originally been applied to represent the climate of polar regions, but it has then been adapted to temperate climates such as Belgium (e.g. Wyard et al, 2017 ;Doutreloup et al, 2019).…”

Future evolution of the hydroclimatic conditions favouring floods in the south‐east of Belgium by 2100 using a regional climate model

“…The RCM used in this study is the MAR model which, although being initially designed for polar regions (Gallée and Schayes, 1994) such as Greenland (Fettweis et al, 2013) or Antarctica (Kittel et al, 2018), was recently adapted and applied to the temperate climate of Belgium (Fettweis et al, 2017;Wyard et al, 2017Wyard et al, , 2018Doutreloup et al, 2019aDoutreloup et al, , 2019b. MAR is a hydrostatic primitive equation model in which convection is parametrized according to Bechtold et al (2001).…”

“…Therefore, despite the significant improvements implemented in the convective scheme of MARv3.8 (Fettweis et al, 2017;Wyard et al, 2018), substantial biases remain in the simulation of convective precipitation. Doutreloup et al (2019aDoutreloup et al ( , 2019b tested the sensitivity of MARv3.9 to five different convective schemes and concluded that none of these convective schemes significantly improves the representation of convective precipitation events. Given the projected increase in convective winter precipitation, using a non-hydrostatic RCM could provide some improvement to the reliability of the projected wintertime precipitation, although the role of convective precipitation remains very limited in the winter months compared to other types of precipitation.…”