Practising the scenario-axes technique

Klooster, Susan A. van 't; Asselt, M.B.A. van

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2005.04.019

Cited by 158 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Scenario generation is then initiated using the scenario axes framework (van't Klooster and van Asselt, 2006), and scenario logics to fully differentiate four alternative qualitative scenarios storylines. Similar to the Storyline and Simulation (SAS) approach (Alcamo, 2001), the axes and logics then provide input into the selection and checking of numerical estimates of driving force change in the IDA model.…”

Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

O’Mahony¹,

Zhou

Sweeney

2013

Ecological Economics

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Section: Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

O’Mahony¹,

Zhou

Sweeney

2013

Ecological Economics

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“…A motivation for the use of scenario discovery is that the available literature on evaluating scenario studies has found that scenario development is difficult if the involved actors have diverging interests and world views [12,16]. Another shortcoming identified in this literature is that scenario development processes have a tendency to overlook surprising developments and discontinuities [17][18][19].…”

Section: Scenario Discovery: a Model Based Approach To Scenario Develmentioning

confidence: 99%

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Halim

Kwakkel

Tavasszy

2016

Futures

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The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel time, will result in a loss of throughput for Rotterdam.Keywords: scenario discovery, deep uncertainty, container shipping, global freight logistics IntroductionIn the past couple of decades, changes in the global container transport system have happened very rapidly. These changes have affected virtually all actors in the system, but the biggest impact has been on maritime ports. Ports have to be adaptive and resilient in responding to the changes in the global container shipping system. In today's globalized economy, ports need to ensure that they can function robustly, both as a transshipment node and as a gateway node for global trade flows. A failure to respond to changes in a timely manner often results in negative consequences for the port itself, as well as the economy of the region or country to which the port belongs. For example, the recent congestion at ports on the west coast of the US resulted in estimated damages for the economy of roughly 7 billion US dollar [1].Preparing a port for a wide range of possible future developments is a profound challenge. The global container shipping system is composed of many elements, with strong interdependencies. Often, small changes cascade quickly through the system, potentially resulting in substantial changes somewhere quite far removed from the initial small change. For example, recently Ultra Large Carrier Vessels have entered the market. Liner shipping companies have started to form alliances to pursue economies of scale. This in turn affects the frequency of port calls, the port rotation schedule, and the container volumes loaded and unloaded at each port. Changes not only take place on the seaside. Developments in the hinterland, such as the construction of new infrastructures such as road, railways, and intermodal facilities affect transport cost.The ongoing changes on both the seaside and the land size of seaports change the spatial flow of containers globally. The operation of the Trans-Siberian railways is an example of the importance of hinterland infrastructure on global container flows through ports [2]. A similar © 2016 Man...

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“…Using the unifying structure of the scenario axes, the scenarios are developed as alternate stories of how the future may unfold. This development is reasoned from the position of the scenarios on the axes, the logic of internal consistency and cause and effect logic [64]. This approach can be theoretically problematic and potentially constraining to creative thinking [46].…”

Section: Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…and not viewed as a rigid blueprint or "straitjacket" [64]. In responding to this challenge, examples of alternative applications of scenario axes include Natural Resources Canada [65] illustrating three dimensional axes in Fig.…”

Section: Scenario Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated scenarios for energy: A methodology for the short term

Mahony¹

2014

Futures

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Quantitative point forecasts of energy and emissions have experienced difficulty with responding to uncertainty. Accuracy issues arise even in the short term with consequences for policy. The technique of scenario analysis is increasingly applied in scientific inquiry on the long term but it also has utility in the short term. This paper presents a discussion of the use of forecasts for prediction and proposes integrated or ´hybrid´ exploratory qualitative and quantitative scenarios in its stead. Various methodological issues are explored towards formulation of a scenario development process. Integrated scenarios structure thinking on the future, bound uncertainty, document important assumptions, aid communication, widen perspectives, can explore new dynamics and permit the exploration of ´softer´ issues in development paths such as governance, social and cultural drivers. These can be crucial to outcomes but are not captured by quantitative approaches alone. An example of the technique employed to construct integrated scenarios for Ireland to 2020 is presented, which as a process is applicable with diverse quantitative techniques. The advancement of more broad holistic perspectives on development and processes of change is policy relevant in all states, for which purpose integrated scenarios are an ideal analysis and mainstreaming tool even on short time scales.

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Practising the scenario-axes technique

Cited by 158 publications

References 3 publications

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

A scenario discovery study of the impact of uncertainties in the global container transport system on European ports

Integrated scenarios for energy: A methodology for the short term

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