Practical solutions for making models indispensable in conservation decision‐making

Addison, Prue; Rumpff, Libby; Bau, Sana; Carey, Janet M.; Chee, Yung En; Jarrad, Frith; McBride, Marissa; Burgman, Mark A.

doi:10.1111/ddi.12054

Cited by 193 publications

(255 citation statements)

References 102 publications

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“…These SDMs, which rely on ecological theory of processes that mediate species distributions and abundance -especially niche theory (Guillera-Arroita et al 2015), are currently the main approach for converting individual point-locality data, such as museum collection records (Loiselle et al 2003;Peterson et al 2011) into the potential distributional range of a species or predicted ranges following global climate change (Li et al 2015). Thus, SDMs have the potential to play a critical role in supporting spatial conservation decision making, especially when conservation biologists are often pressed to make recommendations about conserving biodiversity based on limited species-distribution data and biodiversity resources (Addison et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Proposed biodiversity conservation areas: gap analysis and spatial prioritization on the inadequately studied Qinghai Plateau, China

Powers

Xu³

et al. 2018

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Global biodiversity priorities are primarily addressed through the establishment or expansion of conservation areas (CAs). Spatial prioritization of these CAs can help minimize biodiversity loss by accounting for the uneven distribution of biodiversity and conservation considerations (e.g., accessibility, cost, and biodiversity threats). Furthermore, optimized spatial priorities can help facilitate the judicious use of limited conservation resources by identifying cost effective CA designs. Here, we demonstrate how key species and ecosystems can be incorporated into systematic conservation planning to propose the expansion and addition of new CAs in the biodiversity-unique and data-poor region of Qinghai Plateau, China. We combined species distribution models with a systematic conservation planning tool, MARXAN to identify CAs for biodiversity on Qinghai Plateau. A set of 57 optimal CAs (273,872 km 2 , 39.3 % of this Province) were required to achieve the defined conservation targets in Qinghai Province. We also identified 29 new CAs (139,216 km 2 , 20% of Qinghai Province) outside the existing nature reserve (NRs) that are necessary to fully achieve the proposed conservation targets. The conservation importance of these 29 new CAs was also indicated, with 10 labeled as high priority, 11 as medium priority, and 8 as low priority. High priority areas were more abundant in the eastern and southeastern parts of this region. Our results RESEARCH ARTICLE Launched to accelerate biodiversity conservation A peer-reviewed open-access journalRenqiang Li et al. / Nature Conservation 24: 1-20 (2018) 2 suggest that many species remain inadequately protected within the Qinghai Plateau, with conservation gaps in eastern and northwestern regions. The proposed more representative and effective CAs can provide useful information for adjusting the existing NRs and developing the first National Park in China.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Proposed biodiversity conservation areas: gap analysis and spatial prioritization on the inadequately studied Qinghai Plateau, China

Powers

Xu³

et al. 2018

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“…Few applied conservation practices are based on results of using systematic conservation planning, despite the objectiveness of this method (Cowling et al, 2003). There are studies on the problems of modelling, such as the lack of certainty (Addison et al, 2013). A good approach would be to combine the objective results of models with expert knowledge, which is always to some extent subjective.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recorded and potential distributions on the iberian peninsula of speciesof Lepidoptera listed in the Habitats Directive

Romo¹,

Camero-R.²,

García‐Barros³

et al. 2014

Eur. J. Entomol.

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Abstract. Using data on the known Iberian distributions of 10 species of Lepidoptera listed in the Habitats Directive referenced to the 10 × 10 km UTM grid, we determined their potential distributions and their relationships with selected bioclimatic factors associated with mean temperature and precipitation using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA). Scores for Specialization and Marginality were determined in order to evaluate the relationships between the predictions of the model and climatic factors. The number of squares on the Iberian Peninsula in which the species are recorded and those squares predicted to be favourable for these species were determined if they matched the network of Protected Natural Areas. This suggested that a further eight 10 × 10 km squares should be included in Protected Natural Areas. The results also indicate that climate determines the distributions of most of the species. Although overall there is a close association between the observed and predicted distributions, the less thoroughly documented geographic ranges (i.e. those of the moth species) depart from this pattern.

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“…However, they need to be accompanied by clearly specified trigger points and management interventions (Lindenmayer, Piggott & Wintle 2013) so that subsequent management outcomes can be incorporated in indicator evaluation. Most importantly, however, we need to better communicate the benefit of using the right methods for indicator selection (Addison et al 2013) as well as the risks of using methods that fail to link monitoring actions, i.e. indicators, to management outcomes (Lyons et al 2008).…”

Section: Indicator Selection Methods Focused On Improving Management mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The literature offers a number of tools to aid decision-making, such as decision trees, control charts, Bayesian networks, Markov models, pareto-analysis, and decision matrices (Burgman 2005;Ramsey & Veltman 2005;Marcot et al 2006;Johnson et al 2011;Addison et al 2013;Neil & Fenton 2013). Two approaches of particular value for analysing monitoring decision problems are value of information and cost-effectiveness analyses.…”

Section: Decision Tools For Monitoring Multiple Threatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…specifying an acceptable level of risk or uncertainty, monitoring budget) help limit the suite of monitoring strategies to choose from, management constraints (e.g. Users may find these approaches technically challenging, time-consuming or they may be unfamiliar with the underlying principles and mathematical models (Addison et al 2013). As such, researchers may favor simpler and well-documented methods such as regression, correlations or ordination analysis for indicator selection (Figure 2.3).…”

Section: Limitations Of Current Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effective monitoring for biodiversity conservation

Bal¹

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Monitoring of biodiversity is expensive and can detract resources for managing biodiversity. Given limited resources for conservation, it is not only important to assess the choices we make for managing biodiversity but also those for monitoring biodiversity. This entails considering the benefits and costs of alternative monitoring strategies, and selecting the ones that best inform and improve management decisions. However, understanding which aspects of an ecosystem to monitor (e.g. which species, threat, or indicator) to make effective management decisions is a challenging task. This is especially true when we are faced with large uncertainties, such as those regarding the drivers of change when species are impacted by multiple threats. Although optimal monitoring approaches for conservation decision-making under limited resources have gained popularity over the last decade, similar approaches for monitoring and indicator selection to inform the management of multiple threats for biodiversity have received relatively little attention. In this thesis, I contribute to the theory and tools for selecting monitoring strategies and indicators to improve management decisions, with a focus on multi-species, multi-threat systems. The four objectives of my thesis are: (1) to review current approaches for selecting indicator species for biodiversity management; (2) to assess the value of monitoring species for managing multiple threats; (3) to assess the relative influence of uncertainty and expected benefits of management on monitoring decisions for multiple threats; and (4) to develop a simple indicator selection tool based on a return on investment framework for managing multi-species, multi-threat systems.The thesis starts with a systematic review of the conservation literature, in chapter two, to assess the extent to which the selection of indicator species for biodiversity management explicitly considers management objectives and the management outcomes of monitoring. I find that most indicator selection studies focus on improving the monitoring efficiency rather than the management effectiveness, potentially leading to ineffective indicators. Recommendations are provided to improve indicator selection for management decision-making. I also propose a decision framework for selecting indicator species and identify decision-analytic approaches to evaluate alternative monitoring choices that are further developed in the remainder of the thesis.In chapter three, I use value of information analysis to investigate how monitoring alternative species subject to multiple threats improves our ability to inform the management of these threats.iii Specifically, I compare the effectiveness of different monitoring approaches to learn about the threats i.e. monitoring just species and monitoring with experimental manipulation of threats. My results show that monitoring species alone is unlikely to provide useful information for threat management when there is uncertainty about the effect of multiple threats. Instead, an ...

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Practical solutions for making models indispensable in conservation decision‐making

Cited by 193 publications

References 102 publications

Proposed biodiversity conservation areas: gap analysis and spatial prioritization on the inadequately studied Qinghai Plateau, China

Proposed biodiversity conservation areas: gap analysis and spatial prioritization on the inadequately studied Qinghai Plateau, China

Recorded and potential distributions on the iberian peninsula of speciesof Lepidoptera listed in the Habitats Directive

Effective monitoring for biodiversity conservation

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