Power supply characterization of baseload and flexible enhanced geothermal systems

Abstract

We investigated the techno-economic feasibility and power supply potential of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) across the contiguous United States using a new subsurface temperature model and detailed simulations of EGS project life cycle. Under business-as-usual scenarios and across depths of 1–7 kilometers, we estimated 82,945 GW and 0.65 GW of EGS supply capacity with lower levelized cost of electricity than conventional hydrothermal and solar photovoltaic projects, respectively. Considering the scenario of flexible geothermal dispatch via wellhead throttling and power plant bypass, these estimates climbed up to 184,112 GW and 44.66 GW, respectively. The majority of EGS supply potential was found in the Western and Southwestern regions of the United States, where California, Oregon, Nevada, Montana, and Texas had the greatest EGS capacity potential. With advanced drilling rates based on state-of-the-art implementations of recent EGS projects, we estimated an average improvement of 25.1% in the levelized cost of electricity. These findings underscored the pivotal role of flexible operations in enhancing the competitiveness and scalability of EGS as a dispatchable renewable energy source.