Power of exclusion revisited: probability of excluding relatives of the true father from paternity

Fung, Wing K.; Chung, Yuk‐Ka; Wong, D.M.

doi:10.1007/s004140100210

Cited by 48 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…This method of allowing a small number of incompatible loci, to account for mutations or genotyping errors, is common practice in forensic paternity inference (Fung et al 2002). The calculation of exclusion probabilities is standard, but is repeated here for explicitness.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Power of Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms for Large-Scale Parentage Inference

2006

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Likelihood-based parentage inference depends on the distribution of a likelihood-ratio statistic, which, in most cases of interest, cannot be exactly determined, but only approximated by Monte Carlo simulation. We provide importance-sampling algorithms for efficiently approximating very small tail probabilities in the distribution of the likelihood-ratio statistic. These importance-sampling methods allow the estimation of small false-positive rates and hence permit likelihood-based inference of parentage in large studies involving a great number of potential parents and many potential offspring. We investigate the performance of these importance-sampling algorithms in the context of parentage inference using single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data and find that they may accelerate the computation of tail probabilities .1 millionfold. We subsequently use the importance-sampling algorithms to calculate the power available with SNPs for largescale parentage studies, paying particular attention to the effect of genotyping errors and the occurrence of related individuals among the members of the putative mother-father-offspring trios. These simulations show that 60-100 SNPs may allow accurate pedigree reconstruction, even in situations involving thousands of potential mothers, fathers, and offspring. In addition, we compare the power of exclusion-based parentage inference to that of the likelihood-based method. Likelihood-based inference is much more powerful under many conditions; exclusion-based inference would require 40% more SNP loci to achieve the same accuracy as the likelihood-based approach in one common scenario. Our results demonstrate that SNPs are a powerful tool for parentage inference in large managed and/or natural populations.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, in the forensics literature, there is considerable concern about situations in which a putative father is actually a brother or a cousin of the true father (e.g., Fung et al 2002). Similarly, biologists have seen their attempts at pedigree reconstruction confounded by this ''aunt and uncle effect'' (Olsen et al 2001).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Power of Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms for Large-Scale Parentage Inference

2006

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“…The probability of excluding a relative of (rather than a random individual unrelated to) the true father from paternity when the maternal genotype is known was also derived (Salmon and Brocteur, 1978;Thompson and Meagher, 1987;Double et al, 1997;Fung et al, 2002;Hu et al, 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parentage and sibship exclusions: higher statistical power with more family members

Wang

2007

Heredity

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Parentage exclusion probabilities are now routinely calculated in genetic marker-assisted parentage analyses to indicate the statistical power of the analyses achievable for a given set of markers, and to measure the informativeness of a set of markers for parentage inference. Previous formulas invariably assume that parentage is to be sought for a single offspring, while in practice multiple full siblings might be sampled (for example, seeds, eggs or young from a pair of monogamous parents) and their father, mother or both are to be assigned among a number of candidates. In this study, I derive formulas for parentage exclusion probabilities for an arbitrary number (n) of fullsibs, which reduce to previous equations for the special case of n ¼ 1. I also derive sibship exclusion probabilities, and investigate the power of differentiating half-sib, avuncular and grandparent-grandoffspring relationships using unlinked autosomal markers among different numbers of tested individuals. Applications of the formulas are demonstrated using both theoretical and empirical data sets of allele frequencies. The results from the study highlight the conclusion that the power of genealogical relationship inferences can be enhanced enormously by analysing multiple individuals for a given set of markers. The equations derived in this study allow more accurate determination of marker information and of the power of a parentage/sibship analysis. In addition, they can be used to guide experimental designs of parentage analyses in selecting markers and determining the number of offspring to be sampled and genotyped.

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“…Similar calculations occur in paternity analysis. Lee et al [12] and Fung et al [11] derived formulae for use in paternity testing when the alleged father is a relative of the true father. More generally, Ayres [1] developed a methodology for testing whether two individuals had one of a number of genetic relationships (e.g., full siblings, half-siblings, etc.).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

It was one of my brothers

Anderson

Weir

2005

Int J Legal Med

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When DNA evidence is used to implicate a suspect, it may be of interest to know whether it is likely that the suspect's near relatives also share the suspect's DNA profile. In this study we discuss methods for evaluating the probability that at least one of a set of the suspect's full or half-siblings shares the suspect's DNA profile. We present three such methods: exact calculation, estimation via Monte Carlo simulations, and estimation by means of sandwiching the probability between an upper and a lower bound. We show that, under many circumstances, this upper bound itself provides an extremely quick and accurate estimate of the probability that at least one of the relatives matches the suspect's profile.

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Power of exclusion revisited: probability of excluding relatives of the true father from paternity

Cited by 48 publications

References 9 publications

The Power of Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms for Large-Scale Parentage Inference

The Power of Single-Nucleotide Polymorphisms for Large-Scale Parentage Inference

Parentage and sibship exclusions: higher statistical power with more family members

It was one of my brothers

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