Poverty, Infant Mortality, and Homicide Rates in Cross‐national Perspective: Assessments of Criterion and Construct Validity*

Abstract

This paper assesses the extent to which the infant mortality rate might be treated as a “proxy” for poverty in research on cross-national variation in homicide rates. We have assembled a pooled, cross-sectional time-series dataset for 16 advanced nations over the 1993–2000 period that includes standard measures of infant mortality and homicide and also contains information on two commonly used “income-based” poverty measures: a measure intended to reflect “absolute” deprivation and a measure intended to reflect “relative” deprivation. With these data, we are able to assess the criterion validity of the infant mortality rate with reference to the two income-based poverty measures. We are also able to estimate the effects of the various indicators of disadvantage on homicide rates in regression models, thereby assessing construct validity. The results reveal that the infant mortality rate is more strongly correlated with “relative poverty” than with “absolute poverty,” although much unexplained variance remains. In the regression models, the measure of infant mortality and the relative poverty measure yield significant positive effects on homicide rates, while the absolute poverty measure does not exhibit any significant effects. Our analyses suggest that it would be premature to dismiss relative deprivation in cross-national research on homicide, and that disadvantage is best conceptualized and measured as a multidimensional construct.

Governance and Regional Variation of Homicide Rates

“…In addition, economic inequality and ethnic heterogeneity exert a positive influence on homicide separately as expected (Altheimer, 2008;Chon, 2011;Fearon, 2011;He et al, 2003;Maume & Lee, 2003;Messner, 1982;Messner, Raffalovich, & Sutton, 2010;Nivette, 2011;Ouimet, 2012;Pratt & Cullen, 2005). Inequality, both absolute and relative, makes it difficult to maintain any spirit of e pluribus unum.…”

Income inequality, poverty and crime across nations

“…Messner, Raffalovich, and Sutton () challenged Pridemore's interpretation of the meaning of infant mortality based on their analyses of 16 developed countries. They found that infant mortality rate was more strongly related to a measure of relative poverty (those who earn 60 per cent of the national median income) than a measure of absolute poverty (the percentage who can only afford a basic level of subsistence) (r = 0.744 vs. r = 0.539).…”

Skewed Sex Ratios and Criminal Victimization in India

“…Cross-national studies of homicide (the crime most comparably measured across countries) usually find null (e.g., Barber 2006; Messner et al 2010; 2011) or even perplexingly negative effects (e.g., Antonaccio and Tittle 2007; Barber 2000, 2009; Messner et al 2002) of the male-to-female sex ratio. In a meta-analysis of studies in this genre, Nivette (2011) found that the population sex ratio falls among the weakest and least-consistent predictors of national homicide rates (see also Pratt and Cullen 2005).…”