Poverty Changes during the Three Recent Development Plans in Iran (1995-2007)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyse the degree of poverty in Iran and how it changed over time during the second, third and fourth (first three years) five-year national development plans (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007). It does this by documenting overall poverty levels and poverty within regional subgroups, using the micro-level data set of household expenditure survey conducted by the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI) in 1995, 1999, 2004 and 2007. I have found an increase in all poverty measures in rural regions and a decrease in urban areas during the second development plan (1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999). The country as a whole also experienced a considerable poverty reduction over the third development plan (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004) under Khatami's presidency. However, all poverty measures suggest that during Ahmadinejad Administration (2004)(2005)(2006)(2007) poverty has risen. This paper also examines the distribution of poverty breakdown by the regional status of households in Iran. The incidence, intensity and severity of poverty are higher in rural than urban areas in Iran. Regional decompositions show that although poverty was spread throughout the country, the intensity of poverty in some provinces such as Systan-Balochestan, Kermanshah, Kordestan, Hamadan and Ilam was more pronounced. The results also suggest that the contribution of the "southeast" and "west" regions (including above mentioned provinces) to the national poverty were increased during the second, third and fourth plans. This might be attributed to the fact that these provinces were more affected by eight-year long Iran-Iraq war, immigration of refuges from neighbours countries and drought.

Constructing Robust Poverty Trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 2008–14

“…According to Maasoumi and Mahmoudi (2013), who decomposed poverty changes during the period 2000 to 2009 into growth and redistribution components, poverty declined between 2000 and 2004 and increased afterwards both in rural and urban areas. This is in line with findings in Mahmoudi (2011) who also reported an increase in poverty between 2004 and 2007. There is, however, little knowledge about poverty trends in the Islamic Republic of Iran in the recent past, in particular after 2008, when the country's economy entered a turbulent period as a result of energy price reform, the tightening of international sanctions, and falling oil prices. The most recent international poverty estimates reported by the World Bank and based on the group data from the Household Expenditures and Income Survey (HEIS) contain only two data points, for 2009 and 2013.…”

“…These are calculated either based on the authors' own assessment of an appropriate national line or according to international poverty lines based on US dollars. Examples of such estimates cover different periods between 1984 and 2009 and are available in Assadzadeh and Paul (2004), Salehi-Isfahani (2009), Mahmoudi (2011), and Maasoumi and Mahmoudi (2013).…”

Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2021

“…of such estimates in English cover different periods between 1984 and 2009 and are available in Assadzadeh andPaul (2004), Salehi-Isfahani (2009), Mahmoudi (2011), Nili and Poursadeghi (2011) and Maasoumi and Mahmoudi (2013). There is, however, little knowledge about trends in indicators of welfare in Iran in the most recent past, in particular after the second half of 2000s.…”

Iran Economic Monitor, Fall 2020

“…These are calculated either based on authors' own assessment of an appropriate national line or according to international poverty lines based on U.S. dollars. Examples of such estimates in English cover different periods between 1984 and 2009 and are available in Assadzadeh and Paul (2004), Salehi-Isfahani (2009), Mahmoudi (2011), Nili and Poursadeghi (2011) and Maasoumi and Mahmoudi (2013). There is, however, little knowledge about trends in indicators of welfare in Iran in the most recent past, in particular after the second half of 2000s.…”