Poverty and vulnerability in Mozambique: An analysis of dynamics and correlates in light of the Covid‐19 crisis using synthetic panels

Abstract

This study aims at providing new insights into poverty, vulnerability, and their correlates in Mozambique, applying synthetic panels techniques and expanding on earlier analyses. Our results suggest that there is a high degree of poverty immobility, especially in rural areas in the northern and central regions and for low‐educated people. Even nonpoor households are at a high risk to vulnerability, and this risk does not differ much for households in urban/rural areas or in different regions or with different education levels. We also observe that a large portion of the population remains in or out of poverty over the entire year, with a higher percentage of individuals moving into poverty between the dry and the rainy seasons and a nonnegligible proportion of vulnerable people not managing to revert to nonpoverty in the subsequent dry season. Overall, these findings are highly relevant for designing anti‐poverty policies and strategies, as they provide information on intra‐year shocks and on some of the characteristics related to upward and downward mobility over longer time spans, also with regard to the recent Covid‐19 and other recent shocks suffered by the country.

The impact of COVID‐19 on consumption poverty in Mozambique

“…Indeed, even small shocks in generally poorer rural areas can push many households below the poverty line, whereas urban households hit by comparatively larger shocks could still end up with consumption levels above the poverty line. The higher probability of falling into poverty for households in rural areas is in line with Salvucci and Tarp ( 2021 ). In their study, they also found that the probability of becoming poor had decreased over time from 2008/2009 to 2014/2015.…”

“…Yet, we also found that the longer-term structural drivers of poverty are still at work during the COVID-19 shock: people in rural areas, working in agriculture and/or as family workers without remuneration, or working in services associated with the family, not or less educated, are among the worst-hit population groups in terms of likelihood of falling into poverty. Surely, additional drivers of vulnerability emerged due to COVID-19, which are not simply additional to standard drivers, as also highlighted in Salvucci and Tarp (2021).…”

“If it weren’t for my traditional healer, I would be dead”: Engaging traditional healers to support people living with HIV in rural Mozambique

“…Zambézia province is in north-central Mozambique. Zambézia is home to 5.1 million people (2017) and is one of the poorest regions in the world [ 54 ]. About half (51%) of adults over 15 are literate [ 55 , 56 ].…”

Mozambique: Country Profile

“…According to Fobra and Mavundla [80] and Nuvunga et al [81], some phenomena, such as the devaluation of metical (the local currency), an increase in interest rate, and inflation, have added to high-profile financial scandals and crises and discouraged investors. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) was among such investors [82].…”

“…Mozambique is a low-income country [95], among the world's poorest economies [82], with an average gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of USD 493 [96] in 2020 and USD 503 in 2021 [95], with 60% resulting from the informal sector [83]. The GDP is significantly (40%) generated in informal activities [93] and the sector is expanding [83].…”