Poverty and terrorism in Africa: Understanding the nexus based on existing levels of terrorism

Abstract

Prevailing literature recognizes that poverty may not act as a significant factor that spurs the level of terrorist activities. However, literature on the relationship between poverty and terrorism in Africa remains sparse. This study, therefore, investigates the influence of poverty on terrorism in 26 African countries from 2000 to 2017 in a panel data environment. Findings from the two-stage least square regression, with standard errors which are heteroskedastic and autocorrelation consistent, show that poverty significantly raises the level of terrorism incidents. However, after accounting for unobserved heterogeneity, we find that the positive relationship between poverty and terrorism becomes insignificant. Further findings employing the instrumental variable quantile regression with fixed effects show that the existing levels of terrorism incidents matter for the impact of poverty on terrorism incidents. The result shows that the impact of poverty on terrorism is only significant at the median. Furthermore, economic growth, political stability, income inequality, and unemployment matter for terrorism in Africa. The study highlights that poverty is not a determining factor for terrorism in Africa when compared to economic growth, political stability, and unemployment. Recommendations are such that inclusive growth, political stability, and unemployment reduction should be prioritized in Africa.

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“…The first lags of the regressors are used as instruments in the original regression to control for simultaneity and reverse causality. This procedure is consistent with the studies of Asongu and Biekpe (2018) and Iheonu and Ichoku (2021a). The instruments are derived through an OLS regression in the model with their first lags.…”

“…The region has become a fertile ground for the growth of terrorist activities as a result of a myriad of factors, which include inequality, tribal and ethnic tensions, religious fundamentalism, political instability and armed conflict. Iheonu and Ichoku (2021a) have also revealed that unemployment and bad governance are factors influencing terrorist activities in Africa.…”