Potentials of Renewable Energy Sources in Germany and the Influence of Land Use Datasets

Abstract

Potential analyses identify possible locations for renewable energy installations, such as wind turbines and photovoltaic arrays. The results of previous potential studies for Germany, however, are not consistent due to different assumptions, methods, and datasets being used. For example, different land-use datasets are applied in the literature to identify suitable areas for technologies requiring open land. For the first time, commonly used datasets are compared regarding the area and position of identified features to analyze their impact on potential analyses. It is shown that the use of Corine Land Cover is not recommended as it leads to potential area overestimation in a typical wind potential analyses by a factor of 4.7 and 5.2 in comparison to Basis-DLM and Open Street Map, respectively. Furthermore, we develop scenarios for onshore wind, offshore wind, and open-field photovoltaic potential estimations based on land-eligibility analyses using the land-use datasets that were proven to be best by our pre-analysis. Moreover, we calculate the rooftop photovoltaic potential using 3D building data nationwide for the first time. The potentials have a high sensitivity towards exclusion conditions, which are also currently discussed in public. For example, if restrictive exclusions are chosen for the onshore wind analysis the necessary potential for climate neutrality cannot be met. The potential capacities and possible locations are published for all administrative levels in Germany in the freely accessible database (Tool for Renewable Energy Potentials—Database), for example, to be incorporated into energy system models.

Economics of nuclear power in decarbonized energy systems

“…In our study, we use data from Auer et al [69] for the potential of wind and solar. To put these numbers into context, we compare them against results of a meta-analysis on renewable potential in Germany in the appendix D [70]. The material demonstrates that the assumed potential is in line with results of the meta-analysis, except for PV, for which our assumptions are more conservative.…”

A new model-based participatory approach to resolve land use competition in the energy transition: A case study of ground-mounted photovoltaics in a German municipality

“…As the GM PV model was not originally designed to assess rooftop PV, we used the 3D building data from ATKIS and calculated the modi ed roof area using the equation from (Risch et al, 2022). We found that 90 ha of rooftops are available for PV expansion (Table 2).…”

“…In this endeavour, photovoltaics (PV), including both ground-mounted PV (GM PV) and rooftop PV systems, play a central role. The goal is to increase the share of renewable energies in gross electricity consumption from 46% in 2022 to 80% by 2030 (Kullmann, 2023;Risch et al, 2022). In 2022, PV accounted for 11% of German electricity generation, with plans to expand its capacity signi cantly.…”

Integration of Land Use Potential in Energy System Optimization Models at Regional Scale: The Pantelleria Island Case Study

“…This necessitates a rigorous process for the identification of appropriate sites, commonly referred to as "land eligibility" (LE). A major challenge in this process is the issue of comparability across different assessment tools, surrounded by the absence of standardized data sources [22]. Finally, the optimal land allocation strategy remains unaddressed in ESOMs.…”