Potentially suitable habitat prediction of Pinus massoniana Lamb. in China under climate change using Maxent model

Abstract

BackgroundPinus massoniana is an important timber species with high ecological and economic value in southern China and a pioneer species for the reforestation of barren mountains. The structure and function of the existing Masson pine ecosystem have been seriously affected by worsening habitats under current climate change. Its suitable habitat is likely to change greatly in the near future.MethodsTo estimate the potential geographic distribution of P. massoniana and its response to climate change, the Maxent model was selected to simulate the potentially suitable habitat and corresponding changes in the distribution pattern of P. massoniana under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) with two periods (2050s and 2090s).ResultsUnder current climate conditions, the total suitable habitat area of P. massoniana was 2.08 × 106 km2, including 0.76 × 106 km2 of highly suitable habitat, concentrated mainly in Jiangxi and Zhejiang, central and southeastern Hunan, northern Fujian, central and western Chongqing, southern Anhui, central and surrounding areas of Guangdong, central and eastern Guangxi, and northern Taiwan. The areas of moderately suitable habitat and poorly suitable habitat were 0.87 × 106 km2 and 0.45 × 106 km2, respectively. Temperature and precipitation appear to be the most important predictors: precipitation of the driest month (14.7–215.6 mm), minimum temperature of the coldest month (−3.5–13.8°C), annual temperature range (8.1–32.9°C), and mean temperature of the warmest quarter (23.6–34.7°C). P. massoniana are predicted to expand their potential distribution under future climate change: by the end of this century, their total suitable habitat area increased 0.26 × 106 km2 (10.61%) and 0.45 × 106 km2 (17.05%) under the most moderate (SSP1-2.6) and severe (SSP5-8.5) warming scenarios, respectively, by mainly extending northward.ConclusionUnder the different future climate scenarios, the total suitable habitat area of P. massoniana increased by mainly extending northward. Overall, our study clarifies the potential habitat distribution of P. massoniana and provides a critical empirical reference for future P. massoniana conservation and planting practices.

The optimized Maxent model reveals the pattern of distribution and changes in the suitable cultivation areas for Reaumuria songarica being driven by climate change

“…Future climatic scenarios indicate a shrinking habitat size and a shift in the center of R. songarica 's range towards higher latitudes. Recent research suggests that plants typically migrate according to their biological traits in response to temperature and precipitation changes (Chi et al., 2023 ; Hickling et al., 2010 ; Shi et al., 2023 ; Zhao, Zhang, et al., 2021 ). Drought‐resistant species may migrate towards even drier regions, while cold‐resistant plants may retreat from warmer areas.…”

Modeling the Potential Distribution Patterns of the Invasive Plant Species Phytolacca americana in China in Response to Climate Change

“…Implications of Climate Change: Centroid movements in the present study (Figure 5) align with previous findings that climate change can drive shifts in species distributions. Examples include P. massoniana ex-tending northward [21], Vaccinium membranaceum Douglas ex Torr. (Ericaceae) transitioning to high-elevation areas [53], and Z. spinosa's suitable area gradually moving northward [20].…”

“…spinosa (Rhamnaceae) [ 20 ], Pinus massoniana Lamb. (Pinaceae) [ 21 ], and Litsea cubeba (Lour.) Pers.…”

Effects of Stand Types on Ectomycorrhizal Fungal Community Composition and Structure of Pinus massoniana in Subtropical Mountain Forest Ecosystems

“…Given its excellent environmental resistance and ecological adaptability, Pinus massoniana, a typical EMF host plant in southern China, makes an important contribution to the regional forestry economy (e.g., timber sources) and ecological construction (e.g., water and soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and forest development) [14,15]. Studies on the EMF of P. massoniana conducted to date have mainly focused on the effects of different environmental conditions (e.g., heavy metal pollution and season) [16,17] and disturbance types (e.g., resin tapping) [18] on the EMF community structure and the physiological and biochemical characteristics of tree species [19,20].…”