Potential Range of Bulbocodium versicolor (Ker-Gawl.) Spreng. (Colchicaceae, Liliopsida) in Russia

Abstract

<jats:p>The article presents a bioclimatic model of the potential range of Bulbocodium versicolor in European Russia. To build the model, we analyzed a matrix containing 166 B. versicolor localities in the studied region; the analysis was carried out in the SDMtoolbox program using the climatic paramaters from the WorldClim open database. The model demonstrates that, given the available dataset on the modern climatic conditions, B. versicolor may occur in a wider geographical range comprising, at the very least, the Belgorod, Voronezh, Volgograd, Lipetsk, Penza, Rostov and Saratov provinces. Also, within European Russia, the most favorable conditions for B. versicolor<jats:italic> </jats:italic>are found in most of the Voronezh and Volgograd provinces as well as in some areas of the Right Bank and Left Bank of the Volga River adjacent to the Volga Upland (in the Saratov province). The maximum occurrence probability is 70–100% while the average occurrence probability is 40– 60%. The maximum contribution to the model is made by the precipitation of the warmest and most humid quarter (June–August); a smaller contribution is made by the average temperature of the coldest (December–February) and warmest (June – August) quarters as well as by the average annual precipitation. The least contribution is made by the precipitation of the most humid month (July) and the driest quarter (March–May). Finally, we conclude that bioclimatic model facilitates a better understanding of the geographical distribution of the species in question.</jats:p>

Understanding the effects of weather parameters on the population dynamics of an endangered geophyte supports monitoring efficiency

“…In contrast, the presence of frost days increased the proportion of dormancy breaking C. bulbocodium individuals. These results are in accordance with the ndings of other studies, which found that geophytes can germinate, grow, and develop better under colder conditions (Lundmark et al 2009;Khodorova et al 2010;Kashin et al 2020;Marković et al 2021). These studies agree that geophytes require a warm -cold -warm period to properly complete their life cycle.…”

“…The periods considered were: (1) early spring -peak owering period, (2) fall -owering period, (3) assimilation period of the previous year, (4) leaf growing period, (5) fall -peak assimilation period, (6) early spring -peak assimilation period, (7) period between owering and fruiting and (8) owering period. These periods were chosen as they are expected to have a main in uence on dormancy breaking (1, 2, 5), on bulb growth (3,4,6) and on reproduction (7, 8) (Nagyné 1984; Khodorova and Boitel-Conti 2013; Kashin et al 2020). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to test the effects of weather parameters on the dependent variables (number of owering individuals, number of detectable individuals, number of detectable individuals by leaf number category, changes between behaviour categories, the number of owering individuals compared to the total number of individuals, capsules length and production success) (Supplement Material Table 1).…”