Potential of ecological modelling and smart-drainage development for mitigating adverse effects of future global change-type droughts for the Estonian forest sector

Abstract

Global change-type droughts will become more frequent in the future and threaten forest ecosystems around the globe. A large proportion of the Estonian forest sector is currently subject to artificial drainage, which could probably lead to negative feedbacks when water supply falls short because of high temperatures and low precipitation during future drought periods. In this short article, we propose a novel research perspective that could make use of already gathered data resources, such as remote sensing, climate data, tree-ring research, soil information and hydrological modelling. We conclude that, when applied in concert, such an assembled dataset has the potential to contribute to mitigation of negative climate change consequences for the Estonian forest sector. In particular, smart-drainage systems are currently a rare phenomenon in forestry, although their implementation into existing drainage systems could help maintain the critical soil water content during periods of drought, while properly fulfilling their main task of removing excess water during wet phases. We discuss this new research perspective in light of the current frame conditions of the Estonian forest sector and resolve some current lacks in knowledge and data resources which could help improve the concept in the future.

Long‐term forest monitoring reveals constant mortality rise in European forests

“…Furthermore, regional studies most often interrogate drought response at higher spatial resolution, but generalizing such findings for certain species across the entire distribution range can be difficult (Bussotti & Pollastrini 2017;Rohner et al 2021). As a matter of fact, boreal forest ecosystems also severely suffered from drought in 2018 and subsequent years, which resulted in significant growth declines, increased mortality and wildfires (Krikken et al 2021;George et al 2020;Lindroth et al 2020). This strongly suggests that future global change-type droughts will affect the entire continent rather than single regions, and that forest monitoring could play a key role in guiding future forest management plans.…”