Potential of Bayesian formalism for the fusion and assimilation of sequential forestry data in time and space

Abstract

Forest resource assessments based on multi-source and multi-temporal data have become more common. Therefore, enhancing the prediction capabilities of forestry dynamics by efficiently pooling and analyzing time-series and spatial sequential data is now more pivotal. Bayesian filtering and smoothing provide a well-defined formalism for the fusion or assimilation of various data. We ascertained how often the generic, standardized Bayesian framework is used in the scientific literature and whether such an approach is beneficial for forestry applications. A review of the literature showed that the use of Bayesian methods appears to be less common in forestry than in other disciplines, particularly remote sensing. Specifically, time-series analyses were found to favor <i>ad hoc</i> methods. Our review did not reveal strong numeric evidence for better performance by the various Bayesian approaches, but this result may be partly due to the challenge in comparing a variety of methods for different prediction tasks. We identified methodological challenges related to assimilating predictions of forest development; in particular, combining modeled growth with disturbances due to both forest operations and natural phenomena. Nevertheless, the Bayesian frameworks provide possibilities to efficiently combine and update prior and posterior predictive distributions and derive related uncertainty measures that appear under-utilized in forestry.

Quantifying success share and plant density of direct seeding of Douglas fir using a hurdle negative binomial regression model

“…Jaynes (2003) and Gelman et al (2014) are highly recommended for a thorough introduction to Bayesian thinking and statistical inference. See also Mohamedou et al (2022) for a very recent review about usage of and reasons for Bayesian methods in forestry research.…”