Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria

Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Lawal, Kamoru A.; Salami, Ayobami T.; Abatan, Abayomi A.

doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0381-7

Cited by 77 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…In short, the risk of exacerbation of extreme events exists in the future (drought, flood, food insecurity, rural migration, etc.). This would be the result of future anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases [16,[48][49][50][51][52]. It has been established that the aggravation of extreme events intensifies local hydrological cycles [53][54][55].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change in Future Rainfall Characteristics in the Mekrou Catchment (Benin), from an Ensemble of 3 RCMs (MPI-REMO, DMI-HIRHAM5 and SMHI-RCA4)

et al. 2017

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This study analyzes the impact of climate change on several characteristics of rainfall in the Mekrou catchment for the twenty-first century. To this end, a multi-model ensemble based on regional climate model experiments considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is used. The results indicate a wider range of precipitation uncertainty (roughly between −10% and 10%), a decrease in the number of wet days (about 10%), an increase (about 10%) of the total intensity of precipitation for very wet days, and changes in the length of the dry spell period, as well as the onset and end of the rainy season. The maximum rainfall amounts of consecutive 24 h, 48 h and 72 h will experience increases of about 50% of the reference period. This change in rate compared to the reference period may cause an exacerbation of extreme events (droughts and floods) in the Mekrou basin, especially at the end of the century and under the RCP8.5 scenario. To cope with the challenges posed by the projected climate change for the Mekrou watershed, strong governmental policies are needed to help design response options.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change in Future Rainfall Characteristics in the Mekrou Catchment (Benin), from an Ensemble of 3 RCMs (MPI-REMO, DMI-HIRHAM5 and SMHI-RCA4)

et al. 2017

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“…The basic strategy has been to use the GCMs to simulate the response of the global circulation to large-scale forcings and the RCM to (a) account for sub-GCM grid scale forcings (e.g., complex topographical features and land cover heterogeneities) in a physically based way and (b) enhance the simulation of atmospheric circulations and climatic variables at fine spatial scales. This technique therefore constitutes the most appropriate tool to generate regional climate change data for West Africa and has been used extensively over the region (e.g., [30][31][32][33][34]). For more details about the CMIP5 models, see Taylor et al [35].…”

Section: Future Climate Simulated Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Availability in a Trans-Boundary Basin in West Africa: The Case of Sassandra

Coulibaly

Mpakama

et al. 2018

Hydrology

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Abstract:In the context of climate change in West Africa characterized by a reduction of precipitation, this study was conducted to evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources from now to the end of the 21st century in the transboundary watershed of the Sassandra River shared by Guinea and (1961)(1962)(1963)(1964)(1965)(1966)(1967)(1968)(1969)(1970)(1971)(1972)(1973)(1974)(1975)(1976)(1977)(1978)(1979)(1980). For RCP 4.5, the observed values go from −1.2% in 2030 to −2.3% in 2070 and rise to −2.1% in 2090. Concerning RCP 8.5, we saw a variation from −4.2 to −7.9% in Horizons 2030 and 2090, respectively. With the general decrease in rainfall in West Africa, it is appropriate to assess the impact on water resources of the largest rivers (Niger, Gambia, and Senegal) that irrigate the Sahelo-Saharian zone.

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“…According to [1], there is a high chance that the frequency of heavy precipitation and total precipitation will increase in several parts of the globe in the 21st century. Evidence of climate change in Nigeria has been discussed by [16], who reported increasing damage caused by wind and rainstorms, which are projected to increase in southern regions [17]. The northern part of the country has been experiencing a reduction in rainfall and an increase in the rates of dryness and heat [18,19], while the rainfall amounts have been increasing in the southern part with an irregular pattern [19,20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The northern part of the country has been experiencing a reduction in rainfall and an increase in the rates of dryness and heat [18,19], while the rainfall amounts have been increasing in the southern part with an irregular pattern [19,20]. Moreover, climate projections for the 21st century show a significant increase of temperature over all the ecological zones [17] which may have negative 2 Advances in Meteorology impacts on agriculture and food security. Reference [21] evaluated how crop yield might respond to climate change in Nigeria, and [22] discussed the challenges of agricultural adaptation to climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geospatial Analysis of Extreme Weather Events in Nigeria (1985–2015) Using Self-Organizing Maps

Akande

Costa

Mateu

et al. 2017

Advances in Meteorology

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The explosion of data in the information age has provided an opportunity to explore the possibility of characterizing the climate patterns using data mining techniques. Nigeria has a unique tropical climate with two precipitation regimes: low precipitation in the north leading to aridity and desertification and high precipitation in parts of the southwest and southeast leading to large scale flooding. In this research, four indices have been used to characterize the intensity, frequency, and amount of rainfall over Nigeria. A type of Artificial Neural Network called the self-organizing map has been used to reduce the multiplicity of dimensions and produce four unique zones characterizing extreme precipitation conditions in Nigeria. This approach allowed for the assessment of spatial and temporal patterns in extreme precipitation in the last three decades. Precipitation properties in each cluster are discussed. The cluster closest to the Atlantic has high values of precipitation intensity, frequency, and duration, whereas the cluster closest to the Sahara Desert has low values. A significant increasing trend has been observed in the frequency of rainy days at the center of the northern region of Nigeria.

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Potential influences of global warming on future climate and extreme events in Nigeria

Cited by 77 publications

References 22 publications

Change in Future Rainfall Characteristics in the Mekrou Catchment (Benin), from an Ensemble of 3 RCMs (MPI-REMO, DMI-HIRHAM5 and SMHI-RCA4)

Change in Future Rainfall Characteristics in the Mekrou Catchment (Benin), from an Ensemble of 3 RCMs (MPI-REMO, DMI-HIRHAM5 and SMHI-RCA4)

The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Availability in a Trans-Boundary Basin in West Africa: The Case of Sassandra

Geospatial Analysis of Extreme Weather Events in Nigeria (1985–2015) Using Self-Organizing Maps

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