Potential Impacts of Land Use Changes on Water Resources in a Tropical Headwater Catchment

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationships between land use and future scenarios of land changes on water runoff and groundwater storage in an Environmental Protection Area (EPAs) watershed. The methodology was based on the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological modelling to investigate flow simulations in current land use and in two future scenarios (forest and pasture). The performance of goodness-of-fit indicators in the calibration (NSE = 0.82, R2 = 0.85, PBIAS = 11.9% and RSR = 0.42) and validation (NSE = 0.70, R2 = 0.72, PBIAS = −4% and RSR = 0.55) was classified as good and very good, respectively. The model accurately reproduced the inter-annual distribution of rainfall. The spatial distribution of average annual surface flow, lateral flow, and groundwater flow were different between sub-basins. The future scenario on land use change to forest (FRSE) and pasture (PAST) differed during the year, with greater changes on rainy and dry seasons. FRSE increase of 64.5% in area led to decreased surface runoff, total runoff, and soil water; and increased lateral flow, groundwater, and evapotranspiration. The effect of the natural vegetation cover on soil moisture content is still unclear. The hydrological model indicated the main areas of optimal spatial water flow. Considering economic values, those areas should encourage the development of government policies based on incentive platforms that can improve environmental soil and water sustainability by establishing payment for environmental services (PES).

Impacts of Land-Use, Land-Cover, and Climate Changes on Streamflow in the Upper Lufira Catchment, D.R. Congo

“…In contrast, an increase in other parameters such as lateral flow, groundwater, and evapotranspiration in case of increased forest area (Martins et al, 2021). With an overview of our results, forest areas are characterized by a significant decrease of about 6% between 2000 and 2010 while precipitation has increased during the same period and end up with similar results reported by (Martins et al, 2021). Thus, other factors would explain these results in the Upper Lufira catchment.…”

“…Our results seem quite contrary to those found by several analysts and therefore should have explanations. Seeking to understand, Increasing the forest area or converting the land use change of 64.5% to forest would lead to a decrease in some hydrological components such as surface runoff, total runoff, and water yield (Martins et al, 2021). In contrast, an increase in other parameters such as lateral flow, groundwater, and evapotranspiration in case of increased forest area (Martins et al, 2021).…”

“…Seeking to understand, Increasing the forest area or converting the land use change of 64.5% to forest would lead to a decrease in some hydrological components such as surface runoff, total runoff, and water yield (Martins et al, 2021). In contrast, an increase in other parameters such as lateral flow, groundwater, and evapotranspiration in case of increased forest area (Martins et al, 2021). With an overview of our results, forest areas are characterized by a significant decrease of about 6% between 2000 and 2010 while precipitation has increased during the same period and end up with similar results reported by (Martins et al, 2021).…”

Avaliação dos impactos das mudanças climáticas e das mudanças no uso da terra na bacia do rio Piracicaba, utilizando modelagem hidrológica

“…A região Sudeste do Brasil é propensa a eventos de enchentes e secas severas (Bressiani, 2016) , 2020;MARTINS et al, 2021). Martins et al (2021) enfatiza a importância do desenvolvimento de estudos de impactos de mudanças climáticas nas bacias PCJ, ante as preocupações pelo cumprimento das metas do plano de planejamento de recursos hídricos das bacias PCJ. A partir das anteriores premissas, a área de estudo foi a bacia do rio Piracicaba.…”

Usangu rainfall variability analysis: Unveiling spatio-temporal trend, distribution and concentration of rainfall in a semi-arid region

“…There are several studies conducted in the Usangu catchment. Most studies focus on land cover and land use changes (Hyandye et al, 2018;Martins et al, 2021;Chandrasekharan et al, 2023) environmental flow (Kashaigili et al, 2006;Smith, 2016), surface water allocation (Gervas et al, 2019), climate change impacts (Mutayoba et al, 2018;Mollel et al, 2023), Uncertainty analysis (Tumbo & Hughes, 2015) and groundwater recharges (Silungwe & Kashaigili, 2021).…”