Potential impacts of climate change on the threat of potato cyst nematode species in Great Britain

Abstract

Potato cyst nematode (PCN) species have different temperature optima for various life cycle stages, therefore a risk assessment of the threat of PCN species under future climates is essential to guide adaptation strategies. Data defining the spatial coverage of potato crops in Great Britain were combined with probabilistic climate change data and a newly developed PCN life cycle model to project the future risk to potato crops from PCN. The model was based on the results of controlled environment experiments to investigate the effect of temperature on survival to female maturity using three PCN populations: Globodera pallida (Lindley) and G. rostochiensis from the James Hutton Institute PCN collection, and a field population of G. pallida (S‐Fife). It was found that projected increases in soil temperature could result in increased survival to female maturity for all three PCN populations, with greater increases expected for Scotland, followed by Wales then England. The largest projected increases in Scotland were for G. pallida, whereas G. rostochiensis showed the largest increases in Wales and England. The potential impact of several agronomic adaptation strategies on projected PCN risk were also investigated. The results from the model suggest that soil infestation levels would have to be reduced by up to 40% in order to negate projected increases in PCN risk, and that advancing the start date of the growing season or modifying planting patterns could be successful strategies to reduce future PCN risk.

Population dynamics of the potato cyst nematode, Globodera pallida, in relation to temperature, potato cultivar and nematicide application

“…Understanding how climate change may drive the life cycle and population dynamics of PCN is important because of the role of these plant pests in potato yield reduction; in addition, the management of this pest is of increasing concern due to the withdrawal of nematicides from use. The results indicate that the development of multiple generations of PCN within one growing season in the UK is more likely with increasing soil temperatures associated with climate change and this could have significant effects on management of population multiplication and prevention of the spread of PCN (Jones et al ., ; Skelsey et al ., ).…”

“…The main goal of these experiments was to investigate the relationship between the life cycle of G. pallida and temperature and to assess the potential for the development of a second generation of G. pallida in UK fields. The data has also been used for the development of a dynamic stage-structured simulation model (Kettle & Nutter, 2015) and for risk assessments in relation to climate change (Skelsey et al, 2018). The growth cabinet experiments provide a temporal framework for the rates of development in different temperature regimes and indicate the relative abundance of the different life stages in different temperature regimes.…”

“…In the last century, global temperatures have been increasing due to climate change and the effect of this trend on crop losses due to plant pests and diseases, including soil dwelling organisms such as PCN, is of concern (Ellenby & Smith, ; Stanton & Sartori, ; Munir et al ., ; Ebrahimi et al ., ; Jones et al ., ; Skelsey et al ., ). Recently Jones et al .…”

“…() and Skelsey et al . () have reported on the potential impact of climate change in the UK on the potato cyst nematodes G. rostochiensis and G. pallida based on experiments conducted in controlled environments. While the reports differ in some respects, they generally agree that increases in soil temperatures from current levels are likely to lead to increased multiplication of PCN, particularly G. rostochiensis .…”

“…In the last century, global temperatures have been increasing due to climate change and the effect of this trend on crop losses due to plant pests and diseases, including soil dwelling organisms such as PCN, is of concern (Ellenby & Smith, 1975;Stanton & Sartori, 1990;Munir et al, 2009;Ebrahimi et al, 2014;Jones et al, 2017;Skelsey et al, 2018). Recently Jones et al (2017) and Skelsey et al (2018) have reported on the potential impact of climate change in the UK on the potato cyst nematodes G. rostochiensis and G. pallida based on experiments conducted in controlled environments.…”