Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands

Abstract

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020–2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland Islands Government who seek to better conserve their biodiversity and meet commitments to multi-lateral environmental agreements.

High resolution temperature data for ecological research and management on the Southern Ocean Islands

“…These studies have typically relied on either very coarse-resolution or very spatially-restricted climate data 19,22 , or some estimate of climate variation from elevation 18,21 . Those islands that have resident human populations or a research station typically only collect meteorological data from a single locality 24 .…”

Important Plant Areas: revised selection criteria for a global approach to plant conservation

“…In Arabia, an IPA programme was launched in 2010, adopting a modified set of criteria to that used in Europe (Al-Abbasi et al 2010) and applied to four Saudi Arabian sites to date (e.g., Llewellyn et al 2011). In the UK Overseas Territories, 17 IPAs have been identified and documented in the Falkland Islands (Upson 2012;Upson et al 2016), which have been incorporated into the revised Falkland Islands Government Biodiversity Strategy, and the IPA process has been initiated in several Caribbean islands (Jones 2008;Williams 2009;Linsky 2014). New countries continue to adopt and apply the IPA criteria; for example, a first assessment of 31 IPAs in Kazakhstan has recently been published (Dimeyeva and Vesselova 2015).…”

“…(3) The IPA methodology is an established, internationally proven method for identifying key sites for plant diversity, in use since 2001. It has been successfully tested on countries and regions with a wide range of plant diversity, from the Falklands Islands, with 180 species of vascular plant 14 of which are endemic (Upson 2012;Upson et al 2016), to Turkey, with nearly 9000 species of vascular plant, over 3000 of which are endemic (Byfield et al 2010). Further, it has been tested on countries with varying degrees of data availability, ranging from data-rich countries such as the UK to relatively data-poor countries such as Egypt.…”

Dwarf shrub and grass vegetation resistant to long‐term experimental warming while microarthropod abundance declines on the Falkland Islands

“…Grasses tend to respond positively to warming manipulations (e.g. Understanding vegetation responses in the Falkland Islands will further provide valuable insights for the wider region as many species are at either their most eastern or southern distributional limit in this region (Upson et al 2016). As the Falklands grass community is a mixture of native and invasive species, influenced by a long history of agricultural practices originating from Europe, this region provides a unique opportunity to study the competitive interaction between native and invasive species under warming conditions.…”

“…As the Falklands grass community is a mixture of native and invasive species, influenced by a long history of agricultural practices originating from Europe, this region provides a unique opportunity to study the competitive interaction between native and invasive species under warming conditions. Understanding vegetation responses in the Falkland Islands will further provide valuable insights for the wider region as many species are at either their most eastern or southern distributional limit in this region (Upson et al 2016).…”