Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of North American Trees

McKenney, Daniel W.; Pedlar, John H.; Lawrence, Kevin; Campbell, K; Hutchinson, Michael F.

doi:10.1641/b571106

Cited by 412 publications

(331 citation statements)

References 59 publications

(45 reference statements)

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“…Annual temperature increases exceeding 1.5 °C are projected to result in a warming of 4-11 °C by the end of this century, with little concomitant increase in precipitation 1 . At this pace, climate zones will shift northward at a greater speed than trees can migrate 3 . To understand how future populations of forest trees may respond to climate change, it is essential to uncover past and present signatures of molecular adaptation in their genomes.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Genome sequencing and population genomic analyses provide insights into the adaptive landscape of silver birch

Salojärvi¹,

Smolander²,

Nieminen³

et al. 2017

Nat Genet

235

253

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Forest ecosystems maintain a large share of Northern Hemisphere biodiversity. Boreal forests comprise roughly 30% of global forest area 1 and contain the highest tree density among climate zones 2 . Moreover, boreal regions are undergoing extensive climate change. Annual temperature increases exceeding 1.5 °C are projected to result in a warming of 4-11 °C by the end of this century, with little concomitant increase in precipitation 1 . At this pace, climate zones will shift northward at a greater speed than trees can migrate 3 . To understand how future populations of forest trees may respond to climate change, it is essential to uncover past and present signatures of molecular adaptation in their genomes. Silver birch, B. pendula, is a pioneer species in boreal forests of Eurasia. Flowering of the species can be artificially accelerated 4 , giving it an advantage over other tree species with published genome sequences (such as poplar 5 , spruce 6 , and pine 7 ) for the optimization of fiber and biomass production.Here we sequenced 150 birch individuals and assembled a B. pendula reference genome from a fourth-generation inbred line, resulting in a high-quality assembly of 435 Mb that was linked to chromosomes using a dense genetic map. We analyzed SNPs in the genomes of 80 birch individuals spanning most of the geographic range of B. pendula, as well as seven other members of Betulaceae. Population genomic analyses of these data provide insights into the deep-time evolution of the birch family and on recent natural selection acting on silver birch.Genome sequencing and population genomic analyses provide insights into the adaptive landscape of silver birch Silver birch (Betula pendula) is a pioneer boreal tree that can be induced to flower within 1 year. Its rapid life cycle, small (440-Mb) genome, and advanced germplasm resources make birch an attractive model for forest biotechnology. We assembled and chromosomally anchored the nuclear genome of an inbred B. pendula individual. Gene duplicates from the paleohexaploid event were enriched for transcriptional regulation, whereas tandem duplicates were overrepresented by environmental responses. Population resequencing of 80 individuals showed effective population size crashes at major points of climatic upheaval. Selective sweeps were enriched among polyploid duplicates encoding key developmental and physiological triggering functions, suggesting that local adaptation has tuned the timing of and cross-talk between fundamental plant processes. Variation around the tightlylinked light response genes PHYC and FRS10 correlated with latitude and longitude and temperature, and with precipitation for PHYC. Similar associations characterized the growth-promoting cytokinin response regulator ARR1, and the wood development genes KAK and MED5A.A full list of affiliations appears at the end of the paper.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Genome sequencing and population genomic analyses provide insights into the adaptive landscape of silver birch

Salojärvi¹,

Smolander²,

Nieminen³

et al. 2017

Nat Genet

235

253

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“…The large majority of recent studies on climate change impacts have therefore focused on the estimation of the shifts in species ranges that are expected according to different climatic and land use scenarios. These studies are mainly based on species distribution modelling and are employed in order to forecast changes in the distribution of single species Araujo et al, 2006;Beaumont et al, 2007;Huntley et al, 2007;McKenney et al, 2007;Lawler et al, 2009), ecosystems (Berry et al, 2003;Thuiller et al, 2006) or biodiversity (Bakkenes et al, 2002;Thuiller et al, 2005;Dormann et al, 2008). These techniques allow forecasting changes and are therefore important tools for current conservation planning in order to mitigate the impacts of climate and land use change on biodiversity .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?

Maggini¹,

Lehmann²,

Kéry³

et al. 2011

Ecological Modelling

144

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a b s t r a c tClimate change is affecting biodiversity worldwide inducing species to either "move, adapt or die". In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. Patterns are defined in terms of changes occurring at the leading, trailing or both edges of the distribution: (a) leading edge expansion, (b) trailing edge retraction, (c) range expansion, (d) optimum shift, (e) expansion, (f) retraction, and (g) shift. The methodology is based on the modelling of species distributions along a gradient using generalized additive models (GAMs). Separate models are calibrated for two distinct periods of assessment and response curves are compared over five reference points. Changes occurred at these points are formalized into a code that ultimately designates the corresponding change pattern. We tested the proposed methodology using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey. The elevational distributions of 95 bird species were modelled for the periods 1999-2002 and 2004-2007 and significant upward shifts (all patterns confounded) were identified for 35% of the species. Over the same period, an increase in mean temperature was registered for Switzerland. In consideration of the short period covered by the case study, assessed change patterns are considered to correspond to intermediate patterns in an ongoing shifting process. However, similar patterns can be determined by habitat barriers, land use/land cover changes, competition with concurrent or invasive species or different warming rates at different elevations.

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“…Berteaux et al (2010) predicted a northward shift of isotherms, ranging from 240 km for the 5°C isotherm to 650 km for the -5°C isotherm, from their current positions by 2071 to 2100 in Quebec. McKenney et al (2007) suggested a displacements of favourable climate conditions more than 700 km, corresponding with an average decrease by 12% for the distribution areas of 130 species in North America. However, the models used to predict these climate envelops shifts considered neither the other environmental requirements of the species (edaphic conditions) nor the ecological processes that might interfere with the climate (such as competition).…”

Section: Migration Of Climate Niches For the Principal Tree Speciesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability assessment to climate change of three ecosystem-based forest management projects in Quebec

GoffHéloïse

BergeronYves

2014

The Forestry Chronicle

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The new forest management stewardship of Quebec acknowledges the importance of integrating climate change consequences into forest management. However, forest professionals do not know how they could take climate change into account into their decision-making. This paper proposes the assessment of climate change vulnerability for three ecosystem-based forest management (EBFM) projects in Quebec: the Tembec project in the Abitibi region, the Triad project in the Mauricie region, and the Laurentian Wildlife Reserve project. The objectives were to identify: i) climate change vulnerabilities affecting forest ecosystems and forest management, ii) adaptation options to decrease these vulnerabilities, and iii) current EBFM practices impeding or facilitating the integration of climate change adaptations in forest management. Several features of EBFM, like promoting ecosystem resilience and using an adaptive management framework, may facilitate the integration of adaptation measures into the current forest management approach. We present climate change adaptation as a piece of the puzzle that would facilitate the achievement of EBFM objectives.Keywords: adaptation to climate change, sustainable forest management, resilience, adaptive management, case studies RÉSUMÉ Le nouveau régime forestier du Québec reconnaît l'importante de considérer les conséquences des changements climatiques en aménagement forestier. Cependant, les professionnels forestiers ne savent pas comment ils pourraient tenir compte des changements climatiques dans leurs décisions. Cet article présente l' évaluation de la vulnérabilité aux changements climatiques de trois projets d'aménagement forestier écosystémique (AFE) au Québec: le projet de Tembec dans la région de l' Abitibi, le projet Triade dans la région de la Mauricie, et le projet de la Réserve faunique des Laurentides. Les objectifs étaient d'identifier i) les vulnérabilités aux changements climatiques des écosystèmes forestiers et de l'aménagement forestier, ii) des options d'adaptation visant à réduire ces vulnérabilités, et iii) les pratiques empêchant ou facilitant l'intégration de l'adaptation aux changements climatiques en aménagement forestier. L' AFE présente plusieurs aspects, comme l'amélioration de la résilience des écosystèmes ou l'utilisation d'une gestion adaptative, qui pourraient faciliter l'intégration de mesures d'adaptation dans notre façon actuelle d'aménager les forêts. Nous présentons l'adaptation aux changements climatiques comme une pièce du casse-tête qui pourrait faciliter l'atteinte d' objectifs d' AFE.

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Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of North American Trees

Abstract: BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Cited by 412 publications

References 59 publications

Genome sequencing and population genomic analyses provide insights into the adaptive landscape of silver birch

Genome sequencing and population genomic analyses provide insights into the adaptive landscape of silver birch

Are Swiss birds tracking climate change?

Vulnerability assessment to climate change of three ecosystem-based forest management projects in Quebec

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