Potential impacts of afforestation on climate change and extreme events in Nigeria

Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Salami, Ayobami T.; Matthew, Olaniran J.; Odedokun, Sola

doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1523-9

Cited by 70 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The climatic regions are characterized by: (1) tropical rainforest in the South, (2) tropical savanna in the centre and North and (3) highland or montane climate in areas >1520 m above sea level (Iloeje, ). Annual rainfall ranges from above 2000 mm in the South to less than 600 mm in the North (Abiodun et al , ; Oginni and Adebamowo, ), whereas temperature variation exhibit high contrast between the coastal and inland areas as well as between the high plateau and lowlands. The mean annual temperature ranges are 21–27 °C and >27 °C for the plateaus and inland areas, respectively (Iloeje, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparison of spatial interpolation techniques to generate high‐resolution climate surfaces for Nigeria

Arowolo

Bhowmik

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Climate datagaps are a major challenge for understanding the impacts of climate change on ecosystems, particularly in highly climate vulnerable countries such as Nigeria. The generation of gridded climate data sets in the form of interpolated surfaces may help to fill climate datagaps and in turns enable climate change impact assessments. This article generates climate surfaces of monthly total precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures for Nigeria at 0.001° spatial resolution by comparing two spatial interpolation techniques, i.e. kriging with external drifts and thin plate splines. Climate data from 43 meteorological stations covering the period of 1960–2012 were used to generate climate surfaces fitting the longitude, latitude, elevation and distance to coastline of the stations as independent variables. Three model error statistics, i.e. root mean square error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and index of agreement (d), were used to evaluate and compare the performances of interpolation techniques. The second‐order and third‐order partial thin plate splines were identified as the optimal models for generating precipitation, and minimum and maximum temperatures surfaces, respectively. The best‐fit surfaces yielded an average RMSE, NSE and d of 14.98, 0.87 and 0.97 for precipitation, 0.42, 0.91 and 0.98 for minimum temperature and 0.52, 0.89 and 0.97 for maximum temperature. Our high‐resolution climate surfaces are freely available from an online repository and widely applicable for climate change analysis as well as for biological, forestry and agricultural studies in Nigeria.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, to the best of our knowledge, no effort has been made in Nigeria to generate climate surfaces using historical meteorological data, except for a coarse resolution climate variability analysis by Abiodun et al . (, ) and Eludoyin et al . ().…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Comparison of spatial interpolation techniques to generate high‐resolution climate surfaces for Nigeria

Arowolo

Bhowmik

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…However, SPI assumes a high variability of precipitation and a temporal stationary status for the other variables such as temperature, surface wind and PET, and hence, it does not define droughts/wetness based on water balance. SPI has been widely used to study moisture conditions in many basins and regions of the world, such as the Volta basin of West Africa (Oguntunde et al, 2006;Kasei et al, 2010), in South Africa (Araujo et al, 2014;Ujeneza and Abiodun, 2014); United States (Oladipio, 1985;Wu et al, 2007); Italy (Piccarreta et al, 2004;Abiodun et al, 2013b); China (Bordi et al, 2004;Du et al, 2012) and over Europe (Lloyd-Hughes and Saunders, 2002;Bordi et al, 2009;Vicente-Serrano et al, 2012). For example, Du et al (2012) applied SPI to analyse the dry and wet conditions in Hunan Province of China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This index is currently being applied in different regions around the world (e.g. Vicente-Serrano et al, 2012;Abiodun et al, 2013aAbiodun et al, , 2013bAraujo et al, 2014;Meque and Abiodun, 2014;Ujeneza and Abiodun, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of long‐term dry and wet conditions over Nigeria

Oguntunde

Lischeid

Abiodun

et al. 2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Information on trends and changes in moisture conditions over a region can help policymakers to develop strategies for water resources and disaster risk management. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation of moisture indices and their annual trends in Nigeria were investigated. Thornthwaite moisture index (MI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation‐evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were computed for 1951–2014 period. Mann–Kendall trend and Sen's slope tests were used to examine the existence of temporal and spatial changes in these indices. MI decreased with increasing latitude and values ranged from −86 in the extreme north to +62 in the eastern part of the Niger Delta. A total of 73.4% of the landscape is under conditions where water supply is generally below the evaporative demand and only 26.6% of the area falls within wet sub‐humid and humid regimes. Significant downward trends were observed for all the moisture indices in most of the zones. In general, negative trends were observed in 98.2% of the landscape for MI, 96.7% for SPI and 98.2% for SPEI, showing drying tendencies over Nigeria. Between 40 and 50% of the land area is manifesting persistent shift towards aridity. Observed trends in MI is strongly correlated with that of SPI (r = 0.805) and SPEI (r = 0.715) and correlation of 0.886 was found between changes in SPI and SPEI. Rainfall generally showed higher and significant correlations with MI and slopes of all moisture indices. This information could help policymakers to develop appropriate coping and mitigation strategies for the most vulnerable areas.

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“…Nevertheless, limited efforts have been devoted to the potential impact of reforestation on the West African climate (Xue and Shukla 1996;Abiodun et al 2012;Diasso and Abiodun 2017;Odoulami et al 2017). Works from these studies investigated the impact of reforestation on extreme events (Diba et al 2016), mechanisms underlying precipitation changes (Xue and Shukla 1996), as well as projected changes in near future mean climate and higher order statistics (Abiodun et al 2012(Abiodun et al , 2013Odoulami et al 2017;Diasso and Abiodun 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of the African greenbelt position on West African summer climate: a regional climate modeling study

Bamba

Diallo

N’Datchoh

et al. 2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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This modeling study is conducted to examine the potential impact of the reforestation (greenbelt) location (either in Sahel or in Guinean region) on West African summer climate system. To this end, three simulations using the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis were performed at 50 km horizontal resolution over a West African domain for the period 2000-2011. The first experiment, namely the control (CTRL), uses the standard vegetation cover, while the two others incorporate throughout the model integration, a zonal reforestation band of evergreen broadleaf over different locations: (i) over a 13°N-17°N band latitudes in a Sahel-Sahara region (experiment hereafter referred to as GB15N) and (ii) between 8. 5°N-11.5°N in the Guinea Coast region (experiment hereafter referred to as GB10N). A comparison of the CTRL experiment with observation reveals a faithful reproduction of the mean boreal and summer seasonal precipitation pattern, though substantial dry/wet biases remain, especially in the Atlantic Ocean. In addition, the seasonal cycle over sub-regions matches satisfactory the observed pattern. The GB15N reforestation leads to a precipitation increase in the range of 2-4 mm/day over the forested areas, whereas in the GB10N reforestation, precipitation increase is weaker and not necessarily located in the forested areas. Temperature cooling is observed over the reforested area and may be explained by a decrease of ground heat flux related to a reduction of the surface albedo.

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Potential impacts of afforestation on climate change and extreme events in Nigeria

Cited by 70 publications

References 24 publications

Comparison of spatial interpolation techniques to generate high‐resolution climate surfaces for Nigeria

Comparison of spatial interpolation techniques to generate high‐resolution climate surfaces for Nigeria

Analysis of long‐term dry and wet conditions over Nigeria

Effect of the African greenbelt position on West African summer climate: a regional climate modeling study

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