Potential Impact of the Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods Tax on the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Children: A Modeling Study

Illescas-Zárate, Daniel; Batis, Carolina; Ramirez‐Silva, Ivonne; Torres‐Álvarez, Rossana; Rivera, Juan Á.; Barrientos‐Gutiérrez, Tonatiuh

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2020.591696

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Eight studies were included: national sales data of SSBs and plain water (COLCHERO et al, 2016); national purchase data of SSBs and bottled water (n=75954) (COLCHERO et al, 2017); survey data for body mass index (BMI), obesity, and diabetes analysis in those aged 20 or above (n=2735) (BARRIENTOS-GUTIERREZ et al, 2017); purchase data of taxed and untaxed beverages from households (n=6089) (NG et al, 2018); health worker participants aged 19 or above for soft drink consumption analysis (n=1770) (SÁNCHEZ-ROMERO et al, 2020); participants aged 1 to 99 for oral health analysis (n=2648893) (HERNÁNDEZ-F et al, 2021); participants aged 6 to 17 for BMI, overweight, and obesity analysis (n=10886) (ILLESCAS-ZÁRATE et al, 2021); and urban households for food shopping pattern analysis (n=5493) (PEDRAZA et al, 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One year post-tax, the prevalence of overweight and obesity were projected to drop by 1.7% and 0.4%, respectively (ILLESCAS-ZÁRATE et al, 2021). Moreover, larger reductions would occur in schoolaged, male, and low socioeconomic status (SES) children (ILLESCAS-ZÁRATE et al, 2021).…”

Section: Effects Of Nedf Taxmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, this would be an effective strategy to decrease consumption of junk food. Furthermore, higher reductions in consumption were found in households of low SES, and therefore producing a more equitable outcome (ILLESCAS-ZÁRATE et al, 2021;WHO, 2016aWHO, , 2022.…”

Section: Public Health Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Junk food tax – a public health intervention to tackle non-communicable diseases: A lesson from Mexico

Chan

2023

iii Seven International Congress of Health

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The rising prevalence of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as diabetes and cardiovascular diseases is a major global public health concern. The consumption of junk food – food high in fat, sugar, and salt – contributes to unhealthy weight gain, obesity, and NCDs. The World Health Organization recognizes the health benefits of introducing tax on junk food, proposing that such a policy would encourage healthier dietary choices leading to the reduction of NCD prevalence. Multiple countries have adopted this policy to tackle NCDs. This systematic review focuses on the experience from Mexico and hopes to provide insights on using health tax policy as a public health intervention. The prevalence of various NCDs in Mexico is among the highest in the world. To address this issue, Mexico has decided to regulate the junk food market by introducing an 8% and a 10% tax on non-essential energy-dense foods (NEDFs) and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), respectively, since January 2014. The purchase and consumption of NEDFs and SSBs have declined in the post-tax period. Mathematical models on weight change, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease policy have also predicted a drop in the prevalence of overweight, obesity, diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and mortality, even if calorie compensation is factored in. This translates into a promising reduction in the burden of health due to NCDs and healthcare costs, particularly for those of lower socioeconomic status, thus promoting health equity. However, the policy is not without shortcomings. For instance, the tax effect is not evenly distributed as it varies across types of foods, regions, and retailers; hence hindering the maximum potential of the policy. In addition, the awareness of the junk food tax and its motives is also not universal among the population, which diminishes the impact of the policy. Complementary strategies such as healthy food subsidies or educational campaigns to promote the policy should be considered to maximize the effect. Countries that are considering junk food tax as a public health policy to tackle NCDs should learn from Mexico’s example.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Effects Of Nedf Taxmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Junk food tax – a public health intervention to tackle non-communicable diseases: A lesson from Mexico

Chan

2023

iii Seven International Congress of Health

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“…Trebling tax or implementing front-of-pack warning labels could have led to larger gains. Population-level interventions to reduce BMI are being proposed and tested across the world and they could be beneficial beyond their immediate targets, such as the reduction of obesity or chronic diseases, 14 , 28 extending to reducing the impact of infectious diseases such as COVID-19.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy: a simulation study from Mexico

Johnson,

Carnalla,

Basto-Abreu

et al. 2024

The Lancet Regional Health - Americas

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“…respectively, 1 year after their implementation [34,39]. This translates into body weight reductions of 0.42 kg (UI [0.39, 0.45] kg) for the SSBs tax and 0.40 kg (UI not available) for the junk food tax.…”

Section: Plos Medicinementioning

confidence: 99%

Predicted impact of banning nonessential, energy-dense food and beverages in schools in Mexico: A microsimulation study

Basto-Abreu,

Carnalla,

Reyes-Sánchez

et al. 2024

PLoS Med

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Background Childhood obesity is a growing concern worldwide. School-based interventions have been proposed as effective means to improve nutritional knowledge and prevent obesity. In 2023, Mexico approved a reform to the General Education Law to strengthen the ban of sales and advertising of nonessential energy-dense food and beverages (NEDFBs) in schools and surroundings. We aimed to predict the expected one-year change in total caloric intake and obesity prevalence by introducing the ban of NEDFBs sales in schools, among school-aged children and adolescents (6 to 17 years old) in Mexico. Methods and findings We used age-specific equations to predict baseline fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) and then estimated total energy intake (TEI) per day. The TEI after the intervention was estimated under 4 scenarios: (1) using national data to inform the intervention effect; (2) varying law compliance; (3) using meta-analytic data to inform the intervention effect size on calories; and (4) using national data to inform the intervention effect by sex and socioeconomic status (SES). We used Hall’s microsimulation model to estimate the potential impact on body weight and obesity prevalence of children and adolescents 1 year after implementing the intervention in Mexican schools. We found that children could reduce their daily energy intake by 33 kcal/day/person (uncertainty interval, UI, [25, 42] kcal/day/person), reducing on average 0.8 kg/person (UI [0.6, 1.0] kg/person) and 1.5 percentage points (pp) in obesity (UI [1.1, 1.9] pp) 1 year after implementing the law. We showed that compliance will be key to the success of this intervention: considering a 50% compliance the intervention effect could reduce 0.4 kg/person (UI [0.3, 0.5] kg/person). Our sensitivity analysis showed that the ban could reduce body weight by 1.3 kg/person (UI [0.8, 1.8] kg/person) and up to 5.4 kg/person (UI [3.4, 7.5] kg/person) in the best-case scenario. Study limitations include assuming that obesity and the contribution of NEDFBs consumed at school remain constant over time, assuming full compliance, and not considering the potential effect of banning NEDFBs in stores near schools. Conclusions Even in the most conservative scenario, banning sales of NEDFBs in schools is expected to significantly reduce obesity, but achieving high compliance will be key to its success. Why was this study done? - School-based interventions have been recognized as effective means to improve nutritional knowledge and prevent obesity-related diseases. - In December 2023, the Chamber of Representatives of Mexico approved an amendment that strengthens and updates the General Education Law (Article 75) and nutritional guidelines to ban the sales and advertising of nonessential energy-dense food and beverages (NEDFBs) in schools. What did the researchers do and find? - We used age-specific equations to predict baseline fat-free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) and total energy intake (TEI) per day. - We used microsimulation modeling to predict body weight and obesity prevalence of children and adolescents 1 year after implementing the intervention in Mexican schools. - Our modeling study suggests that an important impact on obesity prevalence can be expected if the law is implemented and enforced as intended. What do these findings mean? - If successful, this law could serve as an example beyond Mexico on how to achieve changes in body weight through school food regulation. - An important limitation of our main scenario is that we assumed full compliance of schools with the law, yet lower compliance will reduce its impact. We also did not consider historical trends on obesity or NEDFBs consumed in schools during our 1 year simulation, and we considered only the ban impact inside schools, excluding effects near and outside schools.

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Potential Impact of the Nonessential Energy-Dense Foods Tax on the Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Children: A Modeling Study

Cited by 5 publications

References 47 publications

Junk food tax – a public health intervention to tackle non-communicable diseases: A lesson from Mexico

Junk food tax – a public health intervention to tackle non-communicable diseases: A lesson from Mexico

Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy: a simulation study from Mexico

Predicted impact of banning nonessential, energy-dense food and beverages in schools in Mexico: A microsimulation study

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