Potential impact of global warming on electricity demand in Niger

Abstract

The present study examines the potential impact of climate change on daily electricity demand (DED) and climate variables in Niger at specific Global Warming Levels (GWL1.5, GWL2.0, GWL2.5, and GWL3.0). The principal component analysis (PCA) and the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was utilized to build the electricity demand model. Furthermore, fourteen (14) regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were used for the study. The ability of the model ensemble-mean in reproducing the annual cycle of the climate variables was evaluated. The impact of climate change at specific GWLs on electricity demand and each climate variable is quantified. The MLR predicted the demand with a coefficient of determination R 2 equals to 0.808 and a root mean square error (RMSE) equals to 149.87. The residuals analysis indicated that the model complies with the regressions assumptions. The models projected an increase of electricity demand at all the GWLs. More than 75% of the models agree on the noticeable change in electricity demand. The results of the study showed how climate services could be used to quantify the impacts of climate change on electricity demand.