Potential impact of climate change on the species richness of subalpine plant species in the mountain national parks of South Korea

Adhikari, Pradeep; Shin, Man‐Seok; Jeon, Ja-Young; Kim, Hyun Woo; Hong, Seungbum; Seo, Chang Ho

doi:10.1186/s41610-018-0095-y

Cited by 31 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…The current climate conditions were determined by averaging the data from 1950 to 2000. Similarly, the future climate conditions in 2050 and 2070 were estimated from the period of 2046 to 2055 and 2066 to 2075, respectively, similar to Adhikari et al (2018). In all climatic data, the spatial resolution was 0.01°(36 s) and approximately 1 km 2 .…”

Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 93%

Potential impact of climate change on plant invasion in the Republic of Korea

et al. 2019

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Background: Invasive plant species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing worldwide. Climatically suitable ranges for invasive plant species are expected to expand due to future climate change. The identification of current invasions and potential range expansion of invasive plant species is required to plan for the management of these species. Here, we predicted climatically suitable habitats for 11 invasive plant species and calculated the potential species richness and their range expansions in different provinces of the Republic of Korea (ROK) under current and future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach. Results: Based on the model predictions, areas of climatically suitable habitats for 90.9% of the invasive plant species are expected to retain current ecological niches and expand to include additional climatically suitable areas under future climate change scenarios. Species richness is predicted to be relatively high in the provinces of the western and southern regions (e.g., Jeollanam, Jeollabuk, and Chungcheongnam) under current climatic conditions. However, under future climates, richness in the provinces of the northern, eastern, and southeastern regions (

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Section: Environmental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 93%

Potential impact of climate change on plant invasion in the Republic of Korea

et al. 2019

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“…Because dispersal is included here as a constraining factor for future species distributions, the bioclimatic data were interpolated by decade to provide frequent steps to include dispersal limitations (Engler et al , 2012). To do so, simple linear regressions were used to obtain for each bioclimatic variable the 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2040 values using a coefficient calculated for the 2000–2050 period following a similar procedure to the one employed by Adhikari et al (2018). The same procedure was applied for 2060 based on the 2050–2070 period, and for decades 2080, 2090 and 2100, values were obtained by extrapolating the 2050–2070 regression coefficient into the future.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The fate of páramo plant assemblages in the sky islands of the northern Andes

Peyre

Lenoir

Karger

et al. 2020

J Vegetation Science

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Aims Assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity is a main scientific challenge, especially in the tropics. We predicted the future of plant species and communities on the unique páramo sky islands by implementing the Spatial Explicit Species Assemblage Modelling framework. Specifically we: (a) calculated species’ maximum dispersal distance; (b) modelled species’ present and future distributions up to 2100; and (c) assembled models into plant communities. The final vulnerability assessment was based on a multi‐dimensional evaluation that considered the species, local plant community and sky island levels. Location Ecuadorian super‐páramo (>4,200 m). Methods Using species trait data, the maximum dispersal distance of 435 species was calculated. Species distribution models (SDM) were fitted to obtain current and future distribution predictions based on dispersal and bioclimatic factors. The final current assemblages and those for 2100 were achieved by stacking all probabilistic SDMs and applying the probability ranking rule. The vulnerability of each sky island was evaluated by quantifying richness and composition changes. Results Maximum dispersal distances ranged between 0.008 m/year and 6,027 m/year, and across all scenarios, 70% of models showed a net loss in species distribution, while 9% of all species were predicted to undergo extinction in Ecuador by 2100. Local richness was estimated to decrease by 56.63% on average, and compositional changes in each sky island suggested a mean loss of 64.74% of their original species pool against a 12.97% gain. Finally, 5% of the sky island floras reconverted from high‐elevation to low‐elevation species. These numbers were usually more important for high‐elevation species and the mountains Pichincha, Ilinizas and Antisana. Conclusions This methodological pioneer study provides novel insight into the future of páramo biodiversity. Significant losses in species distribution and changes in community richness and composition suggest drastic impacts and call for further research considering additional factors, such as land use. Finally, we recommend focusing monitoring and conservation strategies on the northern Ecuadorian sky islands as a priority.

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“…Islam et al (2021) showed positive relation of TBI1 with NDVI of Bangladesh. Adhikari et al (2018) showed that TBI1 determines the species richness in the mountainous region of South Korea. Sosa and Loera (2017) found the highest positive correlation of TBI1 with species richness in Mesoamerica among all other indicators.…”

Section: Annual Average Temperature (Tbi1)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Selection of the Gridded Temperature Dataset for Assessment of Thermal Bioclimatic Environment Changes in Amu Darya River Basin

Salehie

Ismail

Shahid

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Assessment of the thermal bioclimatic environmental changes is important to understand ongoing climate change implications on agriculture, ecology, and human health. This is particularly important for the climatologically diverse transboundary Amy Darya River basin, a major source of water and livelihood for millions in Central Asia. However, the absence of longer period observed temperature data is a major obstacle for such analysis. This study employed a novel approach by integrating compromise programming (CP) and multicriteria group decision–making methods (MCGDM) to evaluate the efficiency of four global gridded temperature datasets based on observation data at 44 stations. The most reliable gridded data was used to assess the spatial distribution of global warming-induced unidirectional trends in thermal bioclimatic indicators (TBI) using a modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test. Ranking of the products revealed Climate Prediction Center (CPC) temperature as most efficient in reconstruction observed temperature, followed by TerraClimate and Climate Research Unit (CRU). Assessment of TBI trends using CPC data revealed an increase in the minimum temperature in the coldest month over the whole basin at a rate of 0.03 to 0.08\(℃\) per decade, except in the east. Besides, an increase in diurnal temperature range and isothermally increased in the east up to 0.2\(℃\) and 0.6% per decade, respectively. The results revealed negative implications of thermal bioclimatic change on water, ecology, and public health in the eastern mountainous region and positive impacts on vegetation in the west and northwest.

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Potential impact of climate change on the species richness of subalpine plant species in the mountain national parks of South Korea

Cited by 31 publications

References 29 publications

Potential impact of climate change on plant invasion in the Republic of Korea

Potential impact of climate change on plant invasion in the Republic of Korea

The fate of páramo plant assemblages in the sky islands of the northern Andes

Selection of the Gridded Temperature Dataset for Assessment of Thermal Bioclimatic Environment Changes in Amu Darya River Basin

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