Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of the Pinewood Nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Chongqing, China

Abstract

Authors' Contribution ZK planned the experiments, performed the statistical analyses, wrote and directed this project. DŞ collected the data and wrote this manuscript. MÖ collected data. ÜÖ performed the statistical analyses. OA revised the manuscript.

Dynamic changes in the suitable areas for the pinewood nematode in the Sichuan–Chongqing Region of China

“…In the present study, the five main factors affecting the potential geographical distribution of the PWN were an altitude of ˂ 400 m, maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio05) of > 37.5 °C, annual precipitation (bio12) of 1100–1250 mm, precipitation in the wettest quarter (bio16) of 460–530 mm, and minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio06) of > 4.0 °C. These results are similar to those of previous studies [ 2 , 11 , 40 ]. The suitable habitat of the PWN was mainly concentrated in low-altitude areas (< 400 m), which supports the fact that no PWNs have been found in the high-altitude areas of Sichuan Province adjacent to Tibet (the highest place in the world; Fig 1 ).…”

“…Of these models, the MaxEnt model can consistently behave better using less sampled data than other niche models, and is widely utilized to estimate the geographic distribution of suitable areas for species in many fields [ 27 , 31 ]. Previously, our team predicted the potential distribution of the PWN in Chongqing municipality, China, under climate change conditions using the MaxEnt model [ 11 ]. Nevertheless, owing to be lack of accurate location analysis to indicate areas of increases and decreases, the prediction results were approximate and difficult to use to effectively prevent and control the distribution of the PWN.…”

“…Regarding the spread of the PWN, one important method of stopping alien organisms from causing harm to the invaded area is to control their entry into the areas suitable for their survival [ 2 , 8 ]. Some studies have indicated that the early control of alien species is more efficacious and affordable than prevention and control after invasion [ 10 , 11 ]. As a result, the spatial distribution of the PWN under current and future conditions must be assessed as early as possible so that eradication and prevention measures can be formulated in advance.…”

“…Over the past decade, some scientists assessed the potential distribution of PWN in Chongqing City or Sichuan Province alone using known distribution records together with layers of environmental variables [ 11 , 14 ], but there is a lack of similar research focusing on Sichuan-Chongqing together. Therefore, these above-mentioned related studies are relatively incomplete, which are mainly reflected in: (1) the relatively small areas studied, because the MaxEnt model can only achieve higher accuracy on a large scale and has a large error on a small scale, which could be because a higher spatial scale means that more species information can be obtained [ 15 , 16 ]; (2) the lack of accurate location analysis of increases and decreases in distribution, resulting in difficulty in laying out the scientific investigations and control pest infestations [ 17 ]; (3) a lack of innovation in research methods, compared with our new method that uses the newly introduced maximum Youden index and the average habitat suitability based on 10 replicates by cross-validation [ 18 , 19 ]; (4) only one specific global climate model (GCM) is used, making it difficult to explain related uncertainties owing to a lack of experimental verification of prediction results from multiple GCMs [ 11 , 14 ]; and (5) a lack of multicollinearity analysis among environmental variables, which is regarded as an error source [ 20 , 21 ]. Moreover, climate change, in terms of temperature and precipitation, will affect the geographical distribution of animals and plants [ 13 ], increase the invasion of alien species, and increase biodiversity losses [ 11 ].…”

The pervasive impact of global climate change on plant-nematode interaction continuum

“…Although not conclusively proved, the reniform nematode R. reniformis was predicted to expand its distribution in USA due to global warming ( Leach et al., 2009 ). Rising temperature also propelled the distribution of pine wilt nematode B. xylophilus and its vector beetle Monochamus alternatus in several parts of the world, where Asia, northern parts of Europe and America are particularly vulnerable ( Hirata et al., 2017 ; Li et al., 2022 ). Earlier believed to be of temperate origin, pine wilt is now more prevalent in the warmer climates as high temperature and low precipitation in summer result in enhanced disease progression due to change in nematode distribution, vector incidence and water stress on pine trees ( Rutherford et al., 1990 ).…”