Potential for an Arctic‐breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification

Abstract

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions.Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway. K E Y W O R D SBranta leucopsis, climate change, dynamic state variable model, global warming, mistimed arrival

Highly dynamic wintering strategies in migratory geese: Coping with environmental change

“…When and where to move is of utmost importance to everything from food acquisition and avoidance of adverse weather conditions, to finding a mate and avoiding predators, and hence an important determinant of individual fitness (Sharma, Couturier, & Cote, ; Swingland & Greenwood, ). Nowhere in the animal kingdom is this more apparent than for migrating birds, and the ability to make optimal migratory choices should consequently be subject to strong selective forces (Lameris et al., ; Prop, Black, & Shimmings, ). General life‐history theory predicts that new traits will only develop if they improve the fitness of the individuals employing them, and that traits are constantly shaped by the environment surrounding the individuals carrying them, by means of evolutionary forces acting to optimize survival and reproduction (Stearns, ).…”

“…Nowhere in the animal kingdom is this more apparent than for migrating birds, and the ability to make optimal migratory choices should consequently be subject to strong selective forces (Lameris et al, 2017;Prop, Black, & Shimmings, 2003). General life-history theory predicts that new traits will only develop if they improve the fitness of the individuals employing them, and that traits are constantly shaped by the environment surrounding the individuals carrying them, by means of evolutionary forces acting to optimize survival and reproduction (Stearns, 1992).…”

Spring temperature, migration chronology, and nutrient allocation to eggs in three species of arctic‐nesting geese: Implications for resilience to climate warming

“…Rates of juvenile growth and survival may be diminished for herbivores that fail to advance their breeding schedules as plant phenology changes (Doiron, Gauthier, & Lévesque, 2015;Kerby & Post, 2017;Ross, Alisauskas, Douglas, & Kellett, 2017). Adaptation to changes in Arctic growing seasons may be challenging for migratory herbivores that spend the winter months in more temperate regions, if their movement to the breeding area is influenced by environmental cues at lower latitudes where phenology is advancing more slowly (Clausen & Clausen, 2013;Lameris et al, 2017).…”

Foraging ecology mediates response to ecological mismatch during migratory stopover

“…This narrow window must coincide with prey availability. Insufficient resources during migratory stopover could result in either delayed or underweight departure, both of which could have individual carry-over effects to the breeding season, with potential populationlevel demographic impacts (Newton 2006, Harrison et al 2011, Lameris et al 2017, Rakhimberdiev et al 2018.…”