Potential flood frequency analysis and susceptibility mapping using CMIP5 of MIROC5 and HEC-RAS model: a case study of lower Dwarkeswar River, Eastern India

Abstract

Floods are one of the major concerns in the world today. The lower reaches of the river coming from the western side of West Bengal are often affected by floods. Thereby estimation and prediction of flood susceptibility in the light of climate change have become an urgent need for flood mitigation and is also the objective of this study. The historical floods (1978–2018) of the monsoon-dominated lower Dwarkeswar River, as well as the possibility of future floods (2020–2075), were investigated applying peak flow daily data. The possibilities of future flow and floods were estimated using rainfall data from MIROC5 of CMIP5 Global Circulation Model (GCM). Besides, four extreme value distribution functions like log-normal (LN), Log-Pearson Type III (LPT-3), Gumbel’s extreme value distribution (EV-I) and extreme value distribution-III (EV-III) were applied with different recurrence interval periods to estimate its probability of occurrences. The flood susceptibility maps were analyzed in HEC-RAS Rain-on-grid model and validated with Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The result shows that Log-Pearson-Type-III can be very helpful to deal with flood frequency analysis with minimum value in Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K–S = 0.11676), Anderson–Darling (A–D = 0.55361) and Chi-squared test (0.909) and highest peak discharge 101.9, 844.9, 1322.5, 1946.2, 2387.9 and 2684.3 cubic metres can be observed for 1.5, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 75 years of return period. Weibull’s method of flood susceptibility mapping is more helpful for assessing the vulnerable areas with the highest area under curve value of 0.885. All the applied models of flood susceptibility, as well as the GCM model, are showing an increasing tendency of annual peak discharge and flood vulnerability. Therefore, this study can assist the planners to take the necessary preventive measures to combat floods.

Integrated approach for spatial flood susceptibility assessment in Bhagirathi sub‐basin, India using entropy information theory and geospatial technology

“…Heavy rainfall during monsoon leads to destructive flash floods in the Darjeeling district located in the north of the sub‐basin (Karmokar & De, 2020). In addition, the paleo‐flood records revealed that flood intensity has been increasing in West Bengal over the period of time (Malik & Pal, 2021).…”

“…This study tries to map the flood susceptibility in the Bhagirathi sub-basin using hybrid frequency ratio and Shannon entropy model. Earlier works (Kaur et al, 2017;Malik & Pal, 2021) on susceptibility assessments F I G U R E 1 Location of the sub-basin in India: (A) sub-basin divisions and watersheds and (B) previous flood sites were often found subjective in nature while in this study probability of flood susceptibility was calculated for each parameter using entropy information theory.…”

“…Heavy rainfall during monsoon leads to destructive flash floods in the Darjeeling district located in the north of the sub-basin (Karmokar & De, 2020). In addition, the paleo-flood records revealed that flood intensity has been increasing in West Bengal over the period of time(Malik & Pal, 2021).Plate 1. Template displaying the flood susceptibility in the sub-basin at different locations: (A) View of Damodar Riverbed at Nutanhat village, Burdwan, (B) Erosion in Gobindapur village due to Ganga River, (C) A typical view of cropland (D) Hooghly River, (E) Ichamati river, and( F) Inundation impact of Kalindi River in Minakhan block and (G) River Ajay in Jayarampur village, Burdwan…”

Flood susceptibility assessment on the proposed high-speed train track Qena-Hurghada-Safaga (QHS), Egypt

“…Selecting an acceptable method is thought to be a vital step for researchers in flood susceptibility mapping. According to Souissi et al, 2020, The four major approaches utilised in flood susceptibility research are as follows: (1) a bivariate statistics techniques like logistical regression method (Al-Juaidi et al, 2018;Chowdhuri et al, 2020), certainty factor (Cao et al, 2020), frequency-dependent statistic (Samanta et al, 2018;Rahmati et al, 2016), evidencebased weighting (Rahmati et al, 2016), (2) strategies based on expert knowledge or MCDA techniques like the method for Sorting Preferences by Comparison to the Perfect Solution (Razavitermeh et al, 2018), AHP (Hamlat et al, 2021;Choudhury, 2022), (3) Utilising hydrological techniques as the Soil Water Analysis System (Malik et al, 2021), and (4) Machine learning techniques , such support vector machines (Tehrany et al, 2015;Youssef et al, 2023).…”

Urban flood risk analysis of buildings using HEC-RAS 2D in climate change framework

“…The study also provided potential adaptation strategies. Malik & Pal (2021) analyzed the flood susceptibility of the lower Dwarkeswar River for historical and future floods for one GCM using the HEC-RAS rain-on-grid model. They concluded that Weibull's method was the best suited for flood susceptibility mapping.…”