Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Water Level, Flora and Macro-fauna of a Large Neotropical Wetland

Abstract

Possible consequences of climate change in one of the world’s largest wetlands (Ibera, Argentina) were analysed using a multi-scale approach. Climate projections coupled to hydrological models were used to analyse variability in wetland water level throughout the current century. Two potential scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions were explored, both resulting in an increase in the inter-annual fluctuations of the water level. In the scenario with higher emissions, projections also showed a long-term negative trend in water-level. To explore the possible response of biota to such water-level changes, species-area relationships of flora and aerial censuses of macro-fauna were analysed during an extraordinary dry period. Plant species richness at the basin scale was found to be highly resistant to hydrological changes, as the large dimension of the wetland acts to buffer against the water-level variations. However, local diversity decreased significantly with low water levels, leading to the loss of ecosystem resilience to additional stressors. The analysis of macro-fauna populations suggested that wetland provides refuge, in low water periods, for the animals with high dispersal ability (aquatic and migratory birds). On the contrary, the abundance of animals with low dispersal ability (mainly herbivorous species) was negatively impacted in low water periods, probably because they are required to search for alternative resources beyond the wetland borders. This period of resource scarcity was also related to increased mortality of large mammals (e.g. marsh deer) around water bodies with high anthropogenic enrichment and cyanobacteria dominance. The synergy between recurrent climatic fluctuations and additional stressors (i.e. biological invasions, eutrophication) presents an important challenge to the conservation of neotropical wetlands in the coming decades.

Enhancing monitoring of rewilding progress through wildlife tracking and remote sensing

“…The Iberá wetland is a large subtropical wetland ecosystem in north-eastern Argentina, of which we focus on the terrestrial ecosystems [ 33 , 34 ]. The weather is humid subtropical with heavier rainfall in spring and summer, a dryer season during fall and winter, and a mean annual precipitation of 1400 mm.…”

Climate Change and Food In/Security: A Critical Nexus

“…Crops are sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation, and a rise in global mean temperatures by 2 • C can destabilize agricultural practices and crop production periods [20]. In addition, food availability is further threatened as climate change leading to climate fluctuations has the potential to lead to the loss of local diversity and translate to lower variety of resources for both current and future generations [33].…”

Multivariate framework for the assessment of key forcing to Lake Malawi level variations in non-stationary frequency analysis

“…The result by Yang and Lu ( 2014 ) is in contrast with that of Han et al ( 2016 ) in their study in Lake Dongting who found increasing patterns in the maximum lake water level, annual mean lake water level, and annual minimum lake water level from 1961 to 2014 that were largely driven by the change of precipitation and the operation of reservoirs. Other studies that have reported on changes in lake levels (i.e., either decreases or increases) in various regions include the following: Úbeda et al ( 2013 ) in the Ibera wetland of Argentina; Stefanidis et al ( 2016 ) in their study of two Mediterranean karstic lakes, namely Vegoritis and Petron in northern Greece; and Song et al ( 2014 ) in the Tibetan Plateau. Awange et al ( 2008 ) reported of recessions of Lake Victoria in east Africa between 1977 and 2001.…”