Potential economic losses to the US corn industry from aflatoxin contamination

Abstract

Mycotoxins, toxins produced by fungi that colonize food crops, can pose a heavy economic burden to the United States corn industry. In terms of economic burden, aflatoxins are the most problematic mycotoxins in US agriculture. Estimates of their market impacts are important in determining the benefits of implementing mitigation strategies within the US corn industry, and the value of strategies to mitigate mycotoxin problems. Additionally, climate change may cause increases in aflatoxin contamination in corn, greatly affecting the economy of the US Midwest and all sectors in the US and worldwide that rely upon its corn production. We propose two separate models for estimating the potential market loss to the corn industry from aflatoxin contamination, in the case of potential near-future climate scenarios (based on aflatoxin levels in Midwest corn in warm summers in the last decade). One model uses probability of acceptance based on operating characteristic (OC) curves for aflatoxin sampling and testing, while the other employs partial equilibrium economic analysis, assuming no Type 1 or Type 2 errors, to estimate losses due to proportions of lots above the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) aflatoxin action levels. We estimate that aflatoxin contamination could cause losses to the corn industry ranging from $52.1 million to $1.68 billion annually in the United States, if climate change causes more regular aflatoxin contamination in the Corn Belt as was experienced in years such as 2012. The wide range represents the natural variability in aflatoxin contamination from year to year in US corn, with higher losses representative of warmer years.

Mapping Quantitative Trait Loci Associated With Resistance to Aflatoxin Accumulation in Maize Inbred Mp719

“…The regulation of aflatoxin contamination is associated with economic losses that include the cost of preventative and mitigation measures using inspections, sampling, and analyses; the reduced value or disposal of contaminated food and feed; and losses caused by the reduction in animal productivity (Wu, 2015). Maize is one of the major crops with a high economic risk for aflatoxin contamination resulting in an estimated loss of up to $225 million annually in the United States (Wu, 2006), and as much as a billion dollars globally (Mitchell et al, 2016). Aflatoxin contamination has historically been a recurrent annual problem in the southern and southeastern regions of the United States (Mitchell et al, 2016).…”

Carbohydrate, glutathione, and polyamine metabolism are central to Aspergillus flavus oxidative stress responses over time

“…An example of this is Aspergillus flavus , a facultative pathogen affecting crops such as maize and peanut which produces carcinogenic secondary metabolites termed aflatoxins. Annual losses can exceed $1 billion for US growers, particularly in regions susceptible to drought stress which has been shown to exacerbate aflatoxin contamination (Hill et al 1983; Mitchell et al 2016; Scully et al 2009). Recent examination of developing maize kernels under drought stress also showed that accumulation of polyunsaturated fatty acids, and simple sugars along with decreases in antioxidants such as polyamines occurred in inbred lines sensitive to drought stress and susceptible to aflatoxin contamination (Yang et al 2018).…”

Modeling Microbial Communities: A Call for Collaboration between Experimentalists and Theorists

“…Mycotoxins are highly present in cereals and dairy products, exceptionally stable even at extreme environmental conditions, and very hard to denature without aggressive, chemical means. The burden of mycotoxin contamination may amount yearly to billions of dollars both for industrial and medical issues [88].…”