Potential distribution of Avena sterilis L. in Europe under climate change

Abstract

Avena sterilis (sterile oat) is one of the most extended and harmful weeds in Mediterranean cereal crops. A process‐based niche model for this species was developed using CLIMEX. The model was validated and used to assess the potential distribution of A. sterilis in Europe under the current climate and under two climate change scenarios. Both scenarios represent contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. The projections under current climate conditions indicated that A. sterilis does not occupy the full extent of the climatically suitable habitat available to it in Europe. Under future climate scenarios, the model projection showed a gradual advance of sterile oat towards Northeastern Europe and a contraction in Southern Europe. The infested potential area increases from the current 45.2% to 51.3% in the low‐emission CO2 scenario and to 59.5% under the most extreme scenario. These results provide the necessary knowledge for identifying and highlighting the potential invasion risk areas and for establishing the grounds on which to base the planning and management measures required. The main actions should be focused on controlling the large‐scale seed scattering, preventing seed dispersal into potentially suitable areas.

Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change

“…This is a fourth-generation atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM4, coupled with an ocean general circulation model, OPYC3 (Castellanos-Frías et al, 2014). The target years were set to 2020, 2050 and 2070 using two different standardized scenarios.…”

Effect of Water Salinity on Seeds Germination of Sterile Oat (Avena sterilis) and Rigid Rye Grass (Lolium rigidum) at Constant or Alternating Temperatures

“…Many species seeds found to response to various amplitudes of temperature fluctuation (Thompson and Grime, 1983). Castellanos-Frias, et al (2014) reported A. sterilis to have a high adaptation in a global geographical distribution with a wide range of temperatures. L. rigidum is also reported to be adapted to a broad range of temperatures for germination between 12 and 30 ⁰ C (Turner, et al, 2001).…”

“…Sterile oat (Avena sterilis) is reported as one the most widespread and harmful weed species in Mediterranean climate (Castellanos-Frias, 2014). It is also considered to be common grass weed of cereals in Mediterranean countries (Dimakakos, 1983) and India (Balyan, et al, 1991) and North America (Carlson and Hill, 1985) and in Europe and Australia (Torner, et al, 1984).…”

Seed germination of rigid ryegrass (Lolium rigidum) and sterile oat (Avena sterilis) under water salinity conditions at constant or alternating temperatures

“…Avena sterilis L (Sterile oat) is one the most widespread, common and harmful to arable crop weed species of Mediterranean climates (Damanakis, 1983 andCastellanos-Frias, 2014). It is also widespread across the whole of Europe (Tutin et al, 1980), India (Balyn et al, 1991), North America (Carlson & Hill, 1985) and Australia (Torner et al, 1984).…”