Potential demand for alternative fuel vehicles

Abstract

This paper analyzes the potential demand for alternative fuel vehicles. The alternative fuel vehicles we consider are liquid propane gas and electric powered vehicles in addition to a dual-fuel vehicle. The data were obtained from a stated preference survey in which each respondent, in a randomly selected sample, was exposed to 15 experiments. In each experiment the respondents were asked to rank three hypothetical vehicles characterized by specific attributes, according to the respondents' preferences. Several versions of a random utility model are formulated and estimated. They include a model for rank ordered data, and models that allow for different types of correlation in preferences across experiments. Apart from one case the model specifications are estimated from the data on first choices. The most general model turns out to predict aggregate second and third choices rather well. The model is applied to assess the willingness to pay for alternative fuel vehicles.

Private household demand for vehicles on alternative fuels and drive trains: a review

“…Second, research from the 80s and 90s mainly focused on the potential demand for battery EVs [13,14,24,27,38,39,54,55,79,90], while studies from the late 90s and 2000s rather address a mix of AFVs including EVs, LPG, CNG or methanol [21][22][23]33,34,42,81,87]. In line with technological developments, recent research also concentrates on HEVs [3,10,26,29,31,32,45,49,53,72], PHEVs [ 9 , 11], bi ofuels [51,68,69,80,89,91], hydrogen [2,66,74,76,86] and HFCVs [46,61,62,65]. Finally, most literature has been published in America.…”

“…It applies a choice experiment approach using a variety of instruments (e.g., pencil and paper, computer aided personal survey instrument (CAPI), internet-based survey) to indirectly elicit attribute values based on either ranking or rating of products described by a number of attributes in several labelled or unlabelled choice sets [18,41,47]. Subsequently, via statistical techniques, the analysis will derive a value for each of these attributes and thus express the relative preferences among vehicle attributes [29,79]. Conventional discrete choice (DC) models analyse situations in which respondents are asked to choose one alternative from a set of mutually exclusive hypothetical alternatives [17,50].…”

The impact of a congestion pricing exemption on the demand for new energy efficient vehicles in Stockholm

“…Gender was statistically significant for low CO 2 petrol and diesel vehicles, with females more likely to purchase these alternatives (Low CO 2 Petrol = 0.972; Low CO 2 Diesel = 0.194). This could reflect a tendency for women to be more environmentally-conscious than men, as found by some other studies (Dagsvik et al, 2002;Golob and Hensher, 1998;Mabit and Fosgerau, 2011), however, this does not appear to apply to exempt EEVs.…”

“…Several studies have investigated the demand for EEVs through stated-preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (Mabit and Fosgerau, 2011) Germany (Hackbarth and Madlener, 2013;Ziegler, 2012), Norway (Dagsvik et al, 2002), United Kingdom (Batley et al, 2004), Canada (Ewing and Sarigöllü, 1998), USA (Brownstone et al, 1996;Bunch et al, 1993;Hess et al, 2012;Musti and Kockelman, 2011) and Australia (Beck et al, 2013). Although each of these studies differed in their approach, all involved SP surveys where characteristics were varied among various types of vehicles including EEVs and presented to respondents, who in turn made hypothetical choices about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase.…”

“…Mabit and Fosgerau (2011) in an analysis of the demand for alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFVs) in Denmark and Dagsvik et al (2002) in a similar analysis for Norway, both found that if the cost and performance between AFVs and conventional vehicles were equal, due to environmental preferences, AFVs would be chosen. Contrary to the German studies, however, both studies found that females were more likely to purchase electric and/or hydrogen vehicles.…”