Potential decline in the distribution and food provisioning services of the mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) in southern Africa

Abstract

Highlights• The mopane worm is an important source of food for people across southern Africa, yet insect declines driven by land use and climate change could threaten this important ecosystem service• We modelled the potential future distribution of mopane worm based on abiotic drivers as well as biotic interactions with food and predator species• The incorporation of biotic interactions using Bayesian networks represents an important step toward more realistic estimates of future species ranges• Our models demonstrate the potential for substantial contraction of the range of mopane worm, which would likely have negative impacts on the health of people in rural communities• Our study demonstrates a methodological advance in modelling species distributions and reveals how environmental change has potential to disrupt the benefits that nature provides for people