Potential conservation gains from improved protected area management in the Brazilian Amazon

West, Thales A. P.; Caviglia‐Harris, Jill L.; Martins, F.; Silva, Daniel E.; Börner, Jan

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109526

Cited by 13 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…The use of Imai et al's (2021) estimator is growing in applied research settings ranging from political science to conservation biology (Hope & Limberg, 2022;Kim & Li, 2023;Shiraef et al, 2022;West et al, 2022). The estimator relies on creating matched sets for each temporal period of the panel data that consisted of an individual treatment unit paired with a predefined number of control units.…”

Section: Modeling: the Impact Of Lfp Payments On Livestock Herd Stock...mentioning

confidence: 99%

stocking impact and financial-climate risk of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program

Hrozencik,

Perez-Quesada,

Bocinsky

2024

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Drought imposes significant costs on the U.S. agricultural sector, particularly livestock producers who rely on precipitation to grow forage. The U.S. Department of Agriculture administers several programs to mitigate the economic costs of drought. One of these programs is the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP), which provides payments to livestock producers impacted by drought. Program evaluation results suggest that producers in drought affected counties that received LFP payments achieved similar herd retention and liquidation outcomes as producers in less drought impacted counties that were ineligible for LFP payments. Modeling results suggest that LFP poses a financial-climate risk to the Federal budget. Depending on the future emissions scenario, annual Federal Government expenditures on LFP are projected to increase above the current average expenditures by 45–135 percent (in 2022 dollars) by 2100

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Section: Modeling: the Impact Of Lfp Payments On Livestock Herd Stock...mentioning

confidence: 99%

stocking impact and financial-climate risk of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program

Hrozencik,

Perez-Quesada,

Bocinsky

2024

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“…Increasing numbers of deforestation fires associated with PADDD events and protected areas over the 2016-2020 period highlight the importance of continuous management efforts for assuring the efficiency of area-based conservation initiatives. Indicators of protected areas management, especially funding, have been correlated to the performance of protected areas in reducing deforestation (80,81). However, the majority of protected areas in the BA are increasingly underfunded and federal institutions controlling land use in and around protected areas have been weakened over the last phase of forest governance (82,83).…”

Section: Land Tenure and Environmental Policiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of fire regimes in the Brazilian Amazon from 2011-2020

Valette¹,

Kountouris²,

Sterrantino³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Over the last decade, carbon emissions due to forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon, linked primarily to logging and wildfires, have become larger than carbon emissions due to deforestation. Climatic and ecological processes affect the landscape’s flammability, while socio-economic processes influence fire use for land management. To limit fire occurrence and its impacts, and lower the risk of rainforest die-off, it is important to understand the drivers of managed and accidental fires. We used deforestation and land use maps, to classify satellite-detected fires in the Brazilian Amazon into deforestation fires, forest fires and agricultural fires. We fitted Bayesian spatiotemporal models for the 2011-2015 and 2016-2020 periods to estimate the association between the three types of fires and potential drivers. We found forest fires are associated with forest cover fragmentation and the distance from forest-agricultural edges. Deforestation fires are closely linked to pastures and became increasingly frequent in the isolated parts of the Brazilian Amazon, while agricultural fires are also frequent in croplands. Protected areas and indigenous lands were associated with fewer deforestation fires and forest fires than unprotected areas. However, sustainable use areas and indigenous land were associated to more deforestation fires over the last period. Reducing wildfire occurrence in the region will require the adoption of agricultural systems that are less reliant on the use of fire, together with reinforced environmental policies to reduce deforestation in the face of weakening forest resource governance.

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“…It is challenging to quantify the net carbon drawdown of a project, also known as additionality, relative to a counterfactual scenario representing what would have happened without the project interventions. Developing quasi-experimental approaches to establish reliable counterfactual scenarios and measure drawdown more accurately remains an open area of active research [13][14][15][16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insuring against variability in the performance of Nature-Based Climate Solutions

Rau,

Gross,

Coomes

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Nature-Based Climate Solutions supply carbon benefits in exchange for much-needed funding, but their credibility is challenged by the inherent variability in net drawdown (i.e., additionality) from carbon sequestration or avoided emissions, and the risk of future releases (impermanence). We recently showed how project developers can gain credibility by conservatively anticipating that all net drawdown is eventually released following a release schedule, issuing additional credits if reality is less pessimistic than projections. This paper computes optimal release schedules using ex post observations of drawdowns, balancing the competing interests of generating credits evaluated as being more permanent with limiting the risk of negative additionality. We study this approach using Monte Carlo simulations of both theoretical and real-life projects and discuss how our approach incentivises project performance. By resolving the trade-off between a credit's permanence rating and risk reduction, our approach provides a pragmatic solution to a key challenge facing project effectiveness.

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Potential conservation gains from improved protected area management in the Brazilian Amazon

Cited by 13 publications

References 45 publications

stocking impact and financial-climate risk of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program

stocking impact and financial-climate risk of the Livestock Forage Disaster Program

Drivers of fire regimes in the Brazilian Amazon from 2011-2020

Insuring against variability in the performance of Nature-Based Climate Solutions

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