Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

Wang, Chen; Prinn, Ronald G.

doi:10.5194/acp-10-2053-2010

Cited by 154 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Therefore, some studies have shown SWS decreases associated with large-and regional-scale use of wind power (Keith et al 2004;Wang and Prinn 2009;Miller et al 2010). Wang and Prinn (2009) revealed that the installation of wind-powered generators over large areas of land or coastal ocean can increase the surface roughness, which can in turn cause a significant reduction in the SWS.…”

Section: Extracting Wind Power To Generate Electricitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

et al. 2017

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drag forces are caused by changes in the external and internal friction in the atmosphere. Changes in surface friction are mainly caused by changes in the surface roughness due to land use and cover change (LUCC), including urbanization, and changes in internal friction are mainly induced by changes in the boundary layer characteristics. Future studies should compare the spatio-temporal differences in SWS between high and low altitudes and quantify the effects of different factors on the SWS. Additionally, in-depth analysis of extreme SWS events and prediction of future mean and extreme SWS values at global and regional scales are also necessary. Abstract Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed (SWS) are induced by a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural climate changes. Thus, the study of the long-term changes of SWS and their causes is very important for recognizing the effects of these processes. Although the slowdown in SWS has been analyzed in previous studies, to the best of knowledge, no overall comparison or detailed examination of this research has been performed. Similarly, the causes of the decreases in SWS and the best directions of future research have not been discussed in depth. Therefore, we analyzed a series of studies reporting SWS trends spanning the last 30 years from around the world. The changes in SWS differ among different regions. The most significant decreases have occurred in Central Asia and North America, with mean linear trends of − 0.11 m s −1 decade −1 ; the second most significant decreases have occurred in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia, with mean linear trends of − 0.08 m s −1 decade −1 ; and the weakest decrease has occurred in Australia. Although the SWS in Africa has decreased, this region lacks long-term observational data. Therefore, the uncertainties in the long-term SWS trend are higher in this region than in other regions. The changes in SWS, caused by a mixture of global-, regional-, and localscale factors, are mainly due to changes in driving forces and drag forces. The changes in the driving forces are caused by changes in atmospheric circulation, and the changes in the Keywords

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Section: Extracting Wind Power To Generate Electricitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

et al. 2017

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“…There are also problems arising from the inherent intermittency of wind power, in addition to the present need to lower unit costs. To address future potential multi-TW demand for renewable electrical power implied by runs of the IGSM EPPA model, a 3D landocean-atmosphere climate model has been used to simulate the potential future climate effects and reliability associated with installation of wind-powered generators over vast land or coastal areas (41,42). Four runs of this climate model with global wind power generation over semiarid lands of 2.3-19 TW indicated that wind turbines could cause surface warming exceeding 1°C-2°C near the installations (41).…”

Section: Application To Specific Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development and application of earth system models

Prinn

2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5°C and 7.4°C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4°C to 14°C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.climate change | energy and environment | climate policy A wide range of everyday human activity affects our environment: food production, transportation, manufacturing, urban development, population growth, supplying potable water, and waste disposal. The environmental effects include climate change, urban air pollution, lowered water quality, land degradation, ecosystem disruption, and human health. The climate issue exemplifies the challenge for sustaining a habitable earth. To forecast climate change and develop sound responses, we need to couple the human and natural components of the earth system. Such integrated assessments have many additional potential benefits: discovery of new interactions among natural and human climate system components, objective assessment of uncertainty in economic and climate projections, critical and quantitative analysis of policy proposals, and understanding connections to other science and policy issues (e.g., air pollution). Today, there are very significant policy debates regarding global climate change within most nations, contentious negotiations under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, and periodic assessments under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1-3).Over the past 2 centuries, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and ma...

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“…In large wind farms, the interaction of the flow and the wind turbines is further complicated by the interaction of the wake of one wind turbine with neighbouring turbines. Besides the changed velocity field around the turbines, there is also evidence that wind turbines affect planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes due to the changed turbulence (Baidya Roy et al, 2004;Calaf et al, 2010;Baidya Roy and Traiteur, 2010;Barrie and KirkDavidoff, 2010;Wang and Prinn, 2010;Lu and Porté-Agel, 2011;Hasager et al, 2013;Fitch et al, 2013a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Explicit Wake Parametrisation V1.0: a wind farm parametrisation in the mesoscale model WRF

et al. 2015

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Abstract. We describe the theoretical basis, implementation, and validation of a new parametrisation that accounts for the effect of large offshore wind farms on the atmosphere and can be used in mesoscale and large-scale atmospheric models. This new parametrisation, referred to as the Explicit Wake Parametrisation (EWP), uses classical wake theory to describe the unresolved wake expansion. The EWP scheme is validated for a neutral atmospheric boundary layer against filtered in situ measurements from two meteorological masts situated a few kilometres away from the Danish offshore wind farm Horns Rev I. The simulated velocity deficit in the wake of the wind farm compares well to that observed in the measurements, and the velocity profile is qualitatively similar to that simulated with large eddy simulation models and from wind tunnel studies. At the same time, the validation process highlights the challenges in verifying such models with real observations.

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Potential climatic impacts and reliability of very large-scale wind farms

Cited by 154 publications

References 17 publications

Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

Development and application of earth system models

The Explicit Wake Parametrisation V1.0: a wind farm parametrisation in the mesoscale model WRF

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