Potential climate-induced distributions of <i>Lophodermium</i> needle cast across central Siberia in the 21 century

Abstract

Abstract. Needle cast caused by fungi of the genus Lophodermium Chevall. is a common disease in pine trees in Siberia. Regression analyses relating needle cast events to climatic variables in [1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010] showed that the disease depended most on precipitation of two successive years. Temperature conditions were important to trigger the disease in wetter years. We used our regional bioclimatic envelope model and IPCC scenarios to model the needle cast distribution and its outbreaks in the 21st century. In a warming climate, the needle cast range would shift northwards. By 2020, needle cast outbreaks would already have damaged the largest forest areas. But outbreak areas would decrease by 2080 because the ranges of modeled pathogen and Scots pine, the disease host, would separate: the host tree progression would be halted by the slower permafrost retreat, which would in turn halt the potential pathogen progression.

Distribución potencial de Lophodermium spp. en bosques de coníferas, con escenarios de cambio climático

“…The values estimated in this work agree with those obtained by Tchebakova et al (2016), who registered a larger amount of forest areas damaged by Lophodermium spp. in the short term (year 2020); although they used different climate change scenarios from those utilized in the present study (B1 and A2: model HadCm3), they cite a tendency toward favorable conditions for the development of Lophodermium spp.…”

“…Los valores obtenidos en este trabajo coinciden con lo documentado por Tchebakova et al (2016), autores que registran, en el corto plazo (año 2020), una mayor cantidad de áreas forestales dañadas por Lophodermium ssp. Aunque, se utilizaron escenarios de cambio climático diferentes al presente estudio (B1 y A2: modelo HadCm3), citan una tendencia a condiciones favorables para el desarrollo de Lophodermium ssp.…”

Needle pathogens of Rhytismataceae: Current knowledge and research opportunities for conifer foliar diseases

“…The recent emergence of several needle diseases has been attributed to more frequent regional warm rain events as a result of changing climates (Lee et al., 2017; Ondrušková et al., 2020; Welsh et al., 2009; Wyka et al., 2017). Projected warmer and wetter years in some regions could likely trigger large‐scale disease outbreaks with significant consequences, although these impacts may be counterbalanced by drier summers and overall drier climates anticipated in the future (Desprez‐Loustau et al., 2007; Sturrock et al., 2011; Tchebakova et al., 2016). Besides the intensified occurrence of native needle pathogens, cryptic and introduced pathogens are also emerging that further threaten conifer forests (Barnes et al., 2008; Mullett & Brown, 2018; Piškur et al., 2013).…”

Siberian plants: untapped repertoire of bioactive endosymbionts

“…One such biological niche includes the geographical area encompasses of the Siberian region which constitutes one of the vast region conquering almost northern Asia with its border extending through different countries like Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and arctic regions (Raiklin 2008). Apart from its vast territory, varied climatic conditions, soil, and topography make Siberia one of the interesting habitat (Tchebakova et al 2016). Till date, it can be believed that Siberia is one of the underexplored areas with scanty exploratory missions being carried out (Franke et al 2004).…”