Potential changes to the biology and challenges to the management of invasive sea lampreyPetromyzon marinusin the Laurentian Great Lakes due to climate change

Abstract

Control programs are implemented to mitigate the damage caused by invasive species worldwide. In the highly invaded Great Lakes, the climate is expected to become warmer with more extreme weather and variable precipitation, resulting in shorter iced‐over periods and variable tributary flows as well as changes to pH and river hydrology and hydrogeomorphology. We review how climate change influences physiology, behavior, and demography of a damaging invasive species, sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus), in the Great Lakes, and the consequences for sea lamprey control efforts. Sea lamprey control relies on surveys to monitor abundance of larval sea lamprey in Great Lakes tributaries. The abundance of parasitic, juvenile sea lampreys in the lakes is calculated by surveying wounding rates on lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), and trap surveys are used to enumerate adult spawning runs. Chemical control using lampricides (i.e., lamprey pesticides) to target larval sea lamprey and barriers to prevent adult lamprey from reaching spawning grounds are the most important tools used for sea lamprey population control. We describe how climate change could affect larval survival in rivers, growth and maturation in lakes, phenology and the spawning migration as adults return to rivers, and the overall abundance and distribution of sea lamprey in the Great Lakes. Our review suggests that Great Lakes sea lamprey may benefit from climate change with longer growing seasons, more rapid growth, and greater access to spawning habitat, but uncertainties remain about the future availability and suitability of larval habitats. Consideration of the biology of invasive species and adaptation of the timing, intensity, and frequency of control efforts is critical to the management of biological invasions in a changing world, such as sea lamprey in the Great Lakes.

Managing Freshwater Fish in a Changing Climate: Resist, Accept, or Direct

“…Changing phenology may also need to be considered in efforts to control unwanted fish species. Earlier spring warming has resulted in earlier entry of Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus into spawning streams in the Laurentian Great Lakes, and thus necessitated changes in the timing of control efforts (Lennox et al 2020). In the Columbia River, increasing water temperatures will increase consumption of native salmonids by native Northern Pikeminnow Ptychocheilus oregonensis (Peterson and Kitchell 2001).…”

Forecasting suppression of invasive sea lamprey in Lake Superior

“…A further aspect of our forecast model that warrants evaluation through an iterative refinement process is our assumption of stationary population and control dynamics from 1953 to 2019 and during the forecasted time period (2020–2040). Climate change could influence future sea lamprey population and control dynamics in the Great Lakes (Lennox et al, 2020), such that empirical estimates of these dynamics from time‐series data assuming stationarity may generate unreliable predictions of mid‐century control outcomes. Analyses investigating sensitivity of sea lamprey control forecasts to different model formulations and climate change scenarios, including alternate non‐stationary population and control dynamics assumptions, would build on our work herein and provide a more in‐depth treatment of the uncertainty associated with forecasting sea lamprey control outcomes.…”

“…A further aspect of our forecast model that warrants evaluation through an iterative refinement process is our assumption of stationary population and control dynamics from 1953 to 2019 and during the forecasted time period . Climate change could influence future sea lamprey population and control dynamics in the Great Lakes (Lennox et al, 2020), such that empirical estimates of these dynamics from time-series data assuming stationarity may generate unreliable predictions of mid-century control outcomes. Globally, resource managers are faced with the challenge of developing effective management solutions to mitigate or reverse adverse effects of established invasive populations.…”

Research on Quantifying Sea Lamprey Ecological Impacts Based on Differential Equation Modeling and AHP-TOPSIS Framework

“…For the purposes of simplification within our model, we will consider this behavior as predation. The predatory efficiency of the sea lamprey is remarkable, with a single individual capable of killing over 20kg of fish [7]. Notably, the gender ratio within sea lamprey populations is density-dependent.…”