Potential benefits of climate forecasting to agriculture

Jones, James W.; Hansen, James; Royce, Frederick S.; Messina, Carlos D.

doi:10.1016/s0167-8809(00)00225-5

Cited by 249 publications

(146 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Over the years, pronounced droughts, reduction in volume of rainfall, excessive rainfall leading to flooding, too high and/or low temperature, among others had been reported in many African countries [3][4][5]. Inability to perfectly understand future weather conditions often exposes farmers to several production uncertainties which could necessitate adoption of some conservative approaches that sacrifice potential farm productivity through some risk minimization decisions [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Access to Risk Mitigating Weather Forecasts and Changes in Farming Operations in East and West Africa: Evidence from a Baseline Survey

Oyekale

2015

Sustainability

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Unfavorable weather currently ranks among the major challenges facing agricultural development in many African countries. Impact mitigation through access to reliable and timely weather forecasts and other adaptive mechanisms are foremost in Africa's policy dialogues and socio-economic development agendas. This paper analyzed the factors influencing access to forecasts on incidence of pests/diseases (PD) and start of rainfall (SR). The data were collected by Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and analyzed with Probit regression separately for East Africa, West Africa and the combined dataset. The results show that 62.7% and 56.4% of the farmers from East and West Africa had access to forecasts on start of rainfall, respectively. In addition, 39.3% and 49.4% of the farmers from East Africa indicated that forecasts on outbreak of pests/diseases and start of rainfall were respectively accompanied with advice as against 18.2% and 41.9% for West Africa. Having received forecasts on start of rainfall, 24.0% and 17.6% of the farmers from East and West Africa made decisions on timing of farming activities respectively. Probabilities of having access to forecasts on PD significantly increased with access to formal education, farm income and previous exposure to climatic shocks. Furthermore, probabilities of having access to forecasts on SR significantly increased (p < 0.05) with access to business income, radio and perception of more erratic rainfall, among others. It was recommended that promotion of informal education among illiterate farmers would enhance their climatic resilience, among others.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Access to Risk Mitigating Weather Forecasts and Changes in Farming Operations in East and West Africa: Evidence from a Baseline Survey

Oyekale

2015

Sustainability

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“…Important crop decisions are made at the beginning of the cropping season. These decisions (such as what, how, and when to plant) are usually based on historical climate and crop data (Hansen 2002, Jagtap et al 2002, and they cannot be easily changed during the cropping season (Jones et al 2000, Baigorria 2007. Dynamic crop models have been used in the last decade as supporting tools for decision makers by evaluating possible scenarios of interannual climate variability (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected Regional Circulation Model outputs

Baigorria

Jones²,

Shin³

et al. 2007

Clim. Res.

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“…The dependence of agricultural production variability on ENSO and its application to the forecasting of food production have been investigated in Africa, America, Europe, and South Asia (e.g. Cane et al 1994, Jones et al 2000, Orlove et al 2000, Ferreyra et al 2001, Gimeno et al 2002, Mavromatis et al 2002, Phillips et al 2002, Meza & Wilks 2003, Selvaraju 2003, but few such studies are available on EAM and ENSO in SE Asia or China. Our aims in this study were, to analyze for the major agricultural regions of China, (1) seasonal climate variability associated with EAM and ENSO and (2) the dependence of agricultural production on seasonal climate variability.…”

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confidence: 99%

Variability in climatology and agricultural production in China in association with the East Asian summer monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation

Tao¹,

Yokozawa²,

Zhang³

et al. 2004

Clim. Res.

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The East Asian monsoon (EAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) determine climate variability over much of East Asia, affecting vulnerable grain markets and food security in China. In this study, we investigated the variability of climate and of agricultural production in China in association with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and ENSO. Data from China showed that a strong EASM decreased fall temperature in Gansu and Sichuan Provinces in western China, as well as winter temperature in Heilongjiang Province in NE China and in Shandong and Anhui Provinces in eastern China. Summer rainfall in Hunan Province in southern China increased in weak EASM years. Summer temperature increased in Heilongjiang in NE China and Gansu Province in NW China during the La Niña phase. Summer rainfall decreased in Gansu Province in NW China during the El Niño phase. Among staple crops in China (rice, wheat, maize), maize production was very vulnerable to a strong EASM and El Niño phase. In Henan Province in central China, seasonal climate variability associated with EASM and ENSO resulted in about 14.4 and 15.6%, respectively, of maize yield variability. Maize yield at the national scale decreased significantly by 5.2% during the El Niño phase. Cropland area affected and damaged by floods in Hunan Province in southern China increased significantly by 11.3 and 8.5%, respectively, in weak monsoon years. During the La Niña phase, total crop planting area increased significantly in Shandong, Henan and Anhui Provinces in central China, and in Heilongjiang Province in NE China; however, it decreased significantly in Sichuan Province in SW China. The large variability in seasonal climate and agricultural production in association with EASM and ENSO warrant applying EASM and ENSO information to agricultural and food market management.KEY WORDS: Agriculture · China · Climate variability · ENSO · Monsoon · Food security · Warning system Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 28: [23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30] 2004 EAM climate. During the winter half of the year (October-March), the climate is mainly cold and dry, with cold spells and strong winds as the major extreme climate events. During the summer period, a rain belt moves gradually from the south to the north, and the climate in eastern China becomes hot and humid. The high rate of variation in the monsoon climate strongly affects the spatial and temporal variability of Asian ecosystems (Fu & Wen 2001).Although ENSO occurs within the tropical Pacific region, its effects are felt around much of the planet, so that it accounts for a substantial portion of the observed inter-annual variability in temperatures and precipitation (Hansen et al. 1999). ENSO influences the spatial patterns of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and of drought and floods in China (Fu & Teng 1988, Huang & Wu 1989, Zhang et al. 1999, Huang & Zhou 2002.Meteorological disaster is an important limiting factor for stable food production, and ...

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Potential benefits of climate forecasting to agriculture

Cited by 249 publications

References 37 publications

Access to Risk Mitigating Weather Forecasts and Changes in Farming Operations in East and West Africa: Evidence from a Baseline Survey

Access to Risk Mitigating Weather Forecasts and Changes in Farming Operations in East and West Africa: Evidence from a Baseline Survey

Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected Regional Circulation Model outputs

Variability in climatology and agricultural production in China in association with the East Asian summer monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation

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