Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral

Matz, Mikhail V.; Treml, Eric A.; Aglyamova, Galina V.; Bay, Line K.

doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1007220

Cited by 194 publications

(226 citation statements)

References 61 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

213

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…If given enough time (hundreds of generations), our stepping-stone wave models suggest that only four migrants would be needed for fixation to occur if selection is strong, suggesting that even limited larval dispersal may be enough to elicit shifts in allele frequencies, consistent with genetic theory and current modeling (Matz et al, 2018). Moreover, the biophysical models of larval dispersal using multiple release sites show that some larvae have some capacity to reach further south.…”

Section: Is Agf Feasible Given Natural Recruitment Rates?supporting

confidence: 71%

“…The success of the assisted spread of PALs beyond the primary deployment sites will also be influenced by the extent and direction of natural connectivity. Estimates of model-based connectivity suggest some dispersal occurs between major regions on the GBR (Treml & Halpin, 2012) and has been supported by further genetic and modeling data showing some acroporid coral species exhibit low differentiation (Lukoschek, Riginos, & Oppen, 2016;Matz, Treml, Aglyamova, & Bay, 2018;van Oppen, Bongaerts, et al, 2011;Shinzato, Mungpakdee, Arakaki, & Satoh, 2015). Many coral species are highly differentiated with low levels of gene flow (Lukoschek, Cross, Torda, Zimmerman, & Willis, 2013;van Oppen, Bongaerts, Underwood, Peplow, & Cooper, 2011;Underwood, Smith, Oppen, & Gilmour, 2009;Warner, Oppen, & Willis, 2015), as initially described in early studies on predominantly brooding species on the GBR (Ayre & Hughes, 2004).…”

Section: Is the Natur Al R Ate Of Southward G Ene Flow Of Putative mentioning

confidence: 81%

“…It would therefore take up to 30-50 generations before variants would travel and reach fixation outside release reefs (red and tan circle, Figure 2) and up to 100 generations to fix at the next proximal reefs (magenta circles, Figure 2). The inclusion of recent effective population size estimates for acroporids (5,000-25,000; Matz et al, 2018) almost doubled this estimate to 78.48 generations to achieve fixation within a single reef (s = 0.1). The inclusion of recent effective population size estimates for acroporids (5,000-25,000; Matz et al, 2018) almost doubled this estimate to 78.48 generations to achieve fixation within a single reef (s = 0.1).…”

Section: How Long Will Natural and Assisted Fixation Of Putative Admentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The active spread of adaptive variation for reef resilience

Quigley

Bay

Oppen

2019

Ecology and Evolution

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The speed at which species adapt depends partly on the rates of beneficial adaptation generation and how quickly they spread within and among populations. Natural rates of adaptation of corals may not be able to keep pace with climate warming. Several interventions have been proposed to fast‐track thermal adaptation, including the intentional translocation of warm‐adapted adults or their offspring (assisted gene flow, AGF) and the ex situ crossing of warm‐adapted corals with conspecifics from cooler reefs (hybridization or selective breeding) and field deployment of those offspring. The introgression of temperature tolerance loci into the genomic background of cooler‐environment corals aims to facilitate adaptation to warming while maintaining fitness under local conditions. Here we use research on selective sweeps and connectivity to understand the spread of adaptive variants as it applies to AGF on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), focusing on the genus Acropora. Using larval biophysical dispersal modeling, we estimate levels of natural connectivity in warm‐adapted northern corals. We then model the spread of adaptive variants from single and multiple reefs and assess if the natural and assisted spread of adaptive variants will occur fast enough to prepare receiving central and southern populations given current rates of warming. We also estimate fixation rates and spatial extent of fixation under multiple release scenarios to inform intervention design. Our results suggest that thermal tolerance is unlikely to spread beyond northern reefs to the central and southern GBR without intervention, and if it does, 30+ generations are needed for adaptive gene variants to reach fixation even under multiple release scenarios. We argue that if translocation, breeding, and reseeding risks are managed, AGF using multiple release reefs can be beneficial for the restoration of coral populations. These interventions should be considered in addition to conventional management and accompanied by strong mitigation of CO2 emissions.

show abstract

Section: Is Agf Feasible Given Natural Recruitment Rates?supporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Is the Natur Al R Ate Of Southward G Ene Flow Of Putative mentioning

confidence: 81%

Section: How Long Will Natural and Assisted Fixation Of Putative Admentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The active spread of adaptive variation for reef resilience

Quigley

Bay

Oppen

2019

Ecology and Evolution

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A subsequent study of genetic rescue and adaptation on the GBR also found potential for the persistence of Acropora millepora as oceans warm (Matz, Treml, Aglyamova, & Bay, ). The authors demonstrate population structuring across a latitudinal and thermal gradient that is closely tied to biophysical patterns, suggesting substantial migration across the GBR.…”

Section: The Adaptive Capacity Of Coralsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Resilience in reef‐building corals: The ecological and evolutionary importance of the host response to thermal stress

Drury

2020

Molecular Ecology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Coral reefs are under extreme threat due to a number of stressors, but temperature increases due to changing climate are the most severe. Rising ocean temperatures coupled with local extremes lead to extensive bleaching, where the coral‐algal symbiosis breaks down and corals may die, compromising the structure and function of reefs. Although the symbiotic nature of the coral colony has historically been a focus of research on coral resilience, the host itself is a foundational component in the response to thermal stress. Fixed effects in the coral host set trait baselines through evolutionary processes, acting on many loci of small effect to create mosaics of thermal tolerance across latitudes and individual coral reefs. These genomic differences can be strongly heritable, producing wide variation among clones of different genotypes or families of a specific larval cross. Phenotypic plasticity is overlaid on these baselines and a growing body of knowledge demonstrates the potential for acclimatization of reef‐building corals through a variety of mechanisms that promote resilience and stress tolerance. The long‐term persistence of coral reefs will require many of these mechanisms to adjust to warmer temperatures within a generation, bridging the gap to reproductive events that allow recombination of standing diversity and adaptive change. Business‐as‐usual climate scenarios will probably lead to the loss of some coral populations or species in the future, so the interaction between intragenerational effects and evolutionary pressure is critical for the survival of reefs.

show abstract

“…, Matz et al. ). Every coral species exists across a variety of environmental gradients, some of which occur over small spatial scales (e.g., fore, back, and patch reefs) while others occur over very large ones (e.g., across ocean‐basins).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Considerations for maximizing the adaptive potential of restored coral populations in the western Atlantic

Baums

Baker

Davies

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

Self Cite

174

193

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Active coral restoration typically involves two interventions: crossing gametes to facilitate sexual larval propagation; and fragmenting, growing, and outplanting adult colonies to enhance asexual propagation. From an evolutionary perspective, the goal of these efforts is to establish self-sustaining, sexually reproducing coral populations that have sufficient genetic and phenotypic variation to adapt to changing environments. Here, we provide concrete guidelines to help restoration practitioners meet this goal for most Caribbean species of interest. To enable the persistence of coral populations exposed to severe selection pressure from many stressors, a mixed provenance strategy is suggested: genetically unique colonies (genets) should be sourced both locally as well as from more distant, environmentally distinct sites. Sourcing three to four genets per reef along environmental gradients should be sufficient to capture a majority of intraspecies genetic diversity. It is best for practitioners to propagate genets with one or more phenotypic traits that are predicted to be valuable in the future, such as low partial mortality, high wound healing rate, high skeletal growth rate, bleaching resilience, infectious disease resilience, and high sexual reproductive output. Some effort should also be reserved for underperforming genets because colonies that grow poorly in nurseries sometimes thrive once returned to the reef and may harbor genetic variants with as yet unrecognized value. Outplants should be clustered in groups of four to six genets to enable successful fertilization upon maturation. Current evidence indicates that translocating genets among distant reefs is unlikely to be problematic from a population genetic perspective but will likely provide substantial adaptive benefits. Similarly, inbreeding depression is not a concern given that current practices only raise first-generation offspring. Thus, proceeding with the proposed management strategies even in the absence of a detailed population genetic analysis of the focal species at sites targeted for restoration is the best course of action. These basic guidelines should help maximize the adaptive potential of reef-building corals facing a rapidly changing environment.

show abstract

Potential and limits for rapid genetic adaptation to warming in a Great Barrier Reef coral

Cited by 194 publications

References 61 publications

The active spread of adaptive variation for reef resilience

The active spread of adaptive variation for reef resilience

Resilience in reef‐building corals: The ecological and evolutionary importance of the host response to thermal stress

Considerations for maximizing the adaptive potential of restored coral populations in the western Atlantic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About