Potential and challenges of depth-resolved three-dimensional MPM simulations: a case study of the 2019 ‘Salezer’ snow avalanche in Davos

Abstract

Avalanche modeling is an essential tool to assess snow avalanche hazard. Today, most popular numerical approaches adopt depth-averaged equations. These methods are computationally efficient but limited in capturing processes occurring in the flow depth direction, e.g. erosion or deposition, which are often considered using ad hoc parameterizations or neglected completely. However, processes such as snow erosion, can crucially influence flow dynamics and run-out and are often not negligible. We address these issues by using a new three-dimensional (3-D) model, based on the material point method and finite strain elastoplasticity. To assess the possibilities and challenges associated with these highly detailed but computationally expensive calculations, we simulated the ‘Salezer’ snow avalanche that released in Davos, Switzerland in 2019. To reproduce the event in our simulations, we use the release areas mapped in a photogrammetric drone survey and estimate the snow conditions on the day of the event. We compare macroscopic features, such as flow outline and snow deposition of the simulated avalanche to field observations. An in-depth analysis of transient 3-D flow structures at the avalanche head not only demonstrates the degree of physical detail in the model, but also highlights challenges which still need to be addressed.