Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions

Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; Thuillot, W.; Bancelin, David; Cano, Juan L.; Cichocki, Filippo

doi:10.1016/j.asr.2015.02.030

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Post-Newtonian corrections were incorporated as discussed in Eggl et al (2015). Our results are presented in Figure 2 as well as in Table 2.…”

Section: Post Mitigation Impact Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…For more details on this topic we would like to refer the reader to Drube et al (2015). Apart from impact validation and parameter estimation, uncertainties also play a fundamental role in post mitigation impact risk assessment (PMIRA) (Eggl et al 2015). Changes in the target's orbit caused by the deflection demonstration are not supposed to increase the impact probability with respect to the Earth in the foreseeable future.…”

Section: The Role Of Uncertainties In Deflection Demonstration Missionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The combined covariance matrix of all uncertainties was sampled with a total number of 1000 clones per run along the largest Eigenvector of the covariance matrix between ±3σ (Extended Line of Variation, e.g., Spoto et al 2014). Orbit uncertainties were assumed to have Gaussian probability densities, whereas the mitigation relevant parameters were drawn from uniform distributions (Eggl et al 2015). An overall mission failure probability of 10% was assumed.…”

Section: Post Mitigation Impact Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dealing with uncertainties in asteroid deflection demonstration missions: NEOTωIST

Eggl

Hestroffer

Cano³

et al. 2015

Proc. IAU

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Deflection missions to near-Earth asteroids will encounter non-negligible uncertainties in the physical and orbital parameters of the target object. In order to reliably assess future impact threat mitigation operations such uncertainties have to be quantified and incorporated into the mission design. The implementation of deflection demonstration missions offers the great opportunity to test our current understanding of deflection relevant uncertainties and their consequences, e.g., regarding kinetic impacts on asteroid surfaces. In this contribution, we discuss the role of uncertainties in the NEOTωIST asteroid deflection demonstration concept, a low-cost kinetic impactor design elaborated in the framework of the NEOShield project. The aim of NEOTωIST is to change the spin state of a known and well characterized near-Earth object, in this case the asteroid (25143) Itokawa. Fast events such as the production of the impact crater and ejecta are studied via cube-sat chasers and a flyby vehicle. Long term changes, for instance, in the asteroid's spin and orbit, can be assessed using ground based observations. We find that such a mission can indeed provide valuable constraints on mitigation relevant parameters. Furthermore, the here proposed kinetic impact scenarios can be implemented within the next two decades without threatening Earth's safety.

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“…Post-Newtonian corrections were incorporated as discussed in Eggl et al (2015). Our results are presented in Figure 2 as well as in Table 2.…”

Section: Post Mitigation Impact Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: The Role Of Uncertainties In Deflection Demonstration Missionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Post Mitigation Impact Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Dealing with uncertainties in asteroid deflection demonstration missions: NEOTωIST

Eggl

Hestroffer

Cano³

et al. 2015

Proc. IAU

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The same applies for mitigation in space of a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) that would likely impact the Earth. In that case, the threatening asteroid's material properties can play a fundamental role when changing its trajectory via impulsive deflection techniques, or when attempting its complete disruption (Ahrens and Harris 1992;Sanchez et al 2009;Sugimoto et al 2014;Eggl et al 2015).…”

Section: Summary and Open Questionsmentioning

confidence: 99%