Possible pathways and tensions in the food and water nexus

Abstract

"Bottom-up" field-based, crop-hydrological models are used to estimate food production and irrigation water extractions under multiple scenarios of water and nitrogen use and crop yield increases from 2010 to 2050 for 19 countries. The results show: (1) a food deficit before 2050 under a worst case climate change scenario in terms of annual crop yield improvement; (2) substantial water deficits, as a result of irrigation, for major food-producing countries that will prevent these nations from meeting their domestic food requirements in the absence of investments in water infrastructure or food imports; and (3) a plateau in terms of crop food production associated with increased water extractions given no further increase in the current area of irrigated agriculture. Possible pathways to respond to the tensions in the food-water nexus are evaluated and include: (1) higher water productivity; (2) food trade; (3) improvements in both crop yield and "sustainable" total factor productivity; (4) greater investment in water infrastructure; and (5) integrative policies and decision processes. Without a combination of some, or all, of these possible pathways, appropriately adapted to bio-physical and socio-economic circumstances, the world faces grave risks in food and water security out to 2050.

The Global Food‐Energy‐Water Nexus

“…Competition in water use for food and energy security constitutes the core of an emerging debate on the food‐energy‐water (FEW) nexus: the growing societal needs for food and energy rely on the same pool of limited freshwater resources, a situation that is generating new questions on the environmental, ethical, economics, and policy implications of human appropriation of water resources. The FEW nexus is an emerging research focus for natural and social scientists who are exploring the impact of water limitations on the production of energy and food (Jones et al, ; Rulli et al, ; Scanlon et al, ), and the extent to which the human pressure on the global freshwater system is expected to increase in response to the growing demand for food and energy (Chiarelli et al, ; Grafton et al, ). Although advancements have been made in terms of understanding linkages among FEW systems (e.g., Biggs et al, ; Jones et al, ; Liu et al, ; Ringler et al, ; Smajgl et al, ) and working toward integrated modeling (Bazilian et al, ; McCarl et al, ), the highly interdisciplinary nature of FEW research has resulted in somewhat disparate clusters of FEW studies.…”

Resilience, Decision‐making, and Environmental Water Releases

“…Further, decision makers can apply the model to evaluate the effects of climate change and to determine the optimal and timely adjustments in diversions for consumptive water use (if required) while keeping the risks to environmental assets to a defined level. This application is particularly important in arid and semiarid regions, including most of Australia, that are projected to have reduced and more variable precipitation (CSIRO & Bureau of Meteorology, ) that, in turn, exacerbate global water risks (Grafton et al, ) and the likelihood of weather extremes (Cai et al, ).…”

Agriculture's Historic Twin-Challenge Toward Sustainable Water Use and Food Supply for All

“…Yet, food demand is expected to increase by 60-100% a few decades into the future. Closing the future food gap sustainably requires bringing together additional measures (Grafton et al, 2017;Kummu et al, 2017). Solutions must integrate strategies harnessing opportunities in all domains of the food system, capitalizing on synergies and co-benefits, embedded in landscape approaches.…”