Possible impacts of a changing climate on intense Ligurian Sea rainfall events

Gallus, William A.; Parodi, Antonio; Maugeri, Maurizio

doi:10.1002/joc.5372

Cited by 15 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Our results confirm therefore the results presented by other authors for Italy and we can conclude that also in the study region yearly 1-day maxima records do not give evidence of any significant trend. It is also worth noticing that a recent study on precipitation output from 12-km horizontal grid spacing EXPRESS-Hydro simulations of past and future climate applied to an area including the points with highest values in figure 2f gives evidence that peak three-hourly rainfall does not increase form 1979-2005 to 2023-2049 periods, even if future events are expected to have a larger areal coverage and a longer duration (Gallus et al, 2017).…”

Section: -Day Annual Maxima Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 97%

High-resolution analysis of 1-day extreme precipitation in a wet area centered over eastern Liguria, Italy

Brunetti

Bertolini

Soldati

et al. 2018

Theor Appl Climatol

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This study analyses 371 yearly series of 1-day precipitation maxima extracted from a data set of highquality homogenized rain gauge records covering an area of about 25000 km 2 in the western part of northern-central Italy that includes eastern Liguria and northern Tuscany and is very prone to severe floods and shallow landslides. Return levels of 1-day extreme precipitation (corresponding to 10-, 50-and 100-year return periods as predicted by a generalized extreme value distribution (GEV)) are estimated both for station sites and for the nodes of a high-resolution grid (30 arcsec). GEV parameters are estimated by regional frequency analysis using the station-year approach. Grid point index floods are estimated from yearly cumulative precipitation normals exploiting the very high correlation existing at local scale between station index flood and the corresponding yearly precipitation normals. Results clearly show the high vulnerability of this region to extreme precipitation events and highlight the different role played by total annual precipitation normals and by both scale and shape parameters in regulating the longer period return levels. The results presented in this paper allow better estimating the climatology of extreme events in the study area, contributing to a more effective hazard assessment at different spatial and temporal scales.

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Section: -Day Annual Maxima Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 97%

High-resolution analysis of 1-day extreme precipitation in a wet area centered over eastern Liguria, Italy

Brunetti

Bertolini

Soldati

et al. 2018

Theor Appl Climatol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…More specifically, Crisci et al (2002), Arnone et al (2013), Saidi et al (2015), and Uboldi and Lussana (2018) have found general increasing trends for short-duration rainfall, respectively, in Tuscany, Sicily, Piedmont, and Lombardy regions, while Caloiero et al (2011) have found decreasing trends in Calabria. Finally, Cifrodelli et al (2015) and Gallus et al (2018) have found that trends are not significant in Umbria and Liguria regions, respectively. As no more than 9% of the Italian area was considered in the above studies, it is no wonder that the limited spatial scale could justify the lack of uniformity of the outcomes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Evidence for Increasing Rainfall Extremes Remains Elusive at Large Spatial Scales: The Case of Italy

Libertino

Ganora

Claps

2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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The widespread perception of an increase in the severity of extreme rainstorms has not found yet clear confirmation in the scientific literature, often showing vastly different results. Especially for short‐duration extremes, spatial heterogeneities can affect the outcomes of large‐scale trend analyses, providing misleading results dependent on the adopted spatial domain. Based on the availability of a renewed and comprehensive database, the present work assesses the presence of regional trends in the magnitude and frequency of annual rainfall maxima for subdaily durations in Italy. Versions of the Mann‐Kendall test and a record‐breaking analysis, which considers the spatial correlation, have been adopted for the scope. Significant trends do not appear at the whole‐country scale, but distinct patterns of change emerge in smaller domains having homogeneous geographical characteristics. Results of the study underline the importance of a multiscale approach to regional trend analysis and the need of more advanced explanations of localized trends.

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“…The selected case study corresponds to a back-building MCS; these are among the most important flash-flood producing storms in the Liguria region area [2,4,41] and other Mediterranean coastal regions, such as southern France [3,42] and eastern Spain [43,44]. MCSs are known to have been common in these areas also in the past [45] and there is evidence that climate change could increase their frequency [46]. It is also known that their dynamics generally develop over the sea [42,47], which can control the rainfall intensity by modifying the atmospheric stability according to the average value of sea surface temperature [48][49][50], and can influence the low-level wind field by means of the differential thermal forcing due to sea surface temperature gradients [51,52].…”

Section: Case Study Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological OSSEs for New Zenith Total Delay Observations: Impact Assessment for the Hydroterra Geosynchronous Satellite on the October 2019 Genoa Event

et al. 2020

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Along the Mediterranean coastlines, intense and localized rainfall events are responsible for numerous casualties and several million euros of damage every year. Numerical forecasts of such events are rarely skillful, because they lack information in their initial and boundary conditions at the relevant spatio-temporal scales, namely O(km) and O(h). In this context, the tropospheric delay observations (strongly related to the vertically integrated water vapor content) of the future geosynchronous Hydroterra satellite could provide valuable information at a high spatio-temporal resolution. In this work, Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are performed to assess the impact of assimilating this new observation in a cloud-resolving meteorological model, at different grid spacing and temporal frequencies, and with respect to other existent observations. It is found that assimilating the Hydroterra observations at 2.5 km spacing every 3 or 6 h has the largest positive impact on the forecast of the event under study. In particular, a better spatial localization and extent of the heavy rainfall area is achieved and a realistic surface wind structure, which is a crucial element in the forecast of such heavy rainfall events, is modeled.

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Possible impacts of a changing climate on intense Ligurian Sea rainfall events

Cited by 15 publications

References 50 publications

High-resolution analysis of 1-day extreme precipitation in a wet area centered over eastern Liguria, Italy

High-resolution analysis of 1-day extreme precipitation in a wet area centered over eastern Liguria, Italy

Evidence for Increasing Rainfall Extremes Remains Elusive at Large Spatial Scales: The Case of Italy

Meteorological OSSEs for New Zenith Total Delay Observations: Impact Assessment for the Hydroterra Geosynchronous Satellite on the October 2019 Genoa Event

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