Possible factors determining global-scale patterns of crop yield sensitivity to drought

Abstract

In recent decades, droughts have critically limited crop production, inducing food system shocks regionally and globally. It was estimated that crop yield variability in around one-third to three-fourths of global harvested areas is explained significantly by drought, revealing the notable vulnerability of crop systems to such climate-related stressors. However, understanding the key factors determining the global pattern of crop yield sensitivity to drought is limited. Here, we investigate a wide range of physical and socioeconomic factors that may determine crop-drought vulnerability in terms of yield sensitivity to drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Index at 0.5° resolution from 1981 to 2016 using machine learning approaches. The results indicate that the spatial variations of the crop-drought sensitivity were mainly explained by environmental factors (i.e., annual precipitation, soil water-holding capacity, soil acidity, annual potential evapotranspiration) and crop management factors (i.e., fertilizer rate, growing season). Several factors might have a positive effect in mitigating crop-drought vulnerability, such as annual precipitation, soil water holding capacity, and fertilizer rate. This study quantitatively assesses the possible effect of various determinants which might control crop vulnerability to drought. This understanding may provide insights for further studies addressing better crop vulnerability measures under future drought stress.