Possible effects of habitat fragmentation and climate change on the range of forest plant species

Abstract

Global circulation models predict an increase in mean annual temperature between 2.1 and 4.6 °C by 2080 in the northern temperate zone. The associated changes in the ratio of extinctions and colonizations at the boundaries of species ranges are expected to result in northward range shifts for a lot of species. However, net species colonization at northern boundary ranges, necessary for a northward shift and for range conservation, may be hampered because of habitat fragmentation. We report the results of two forest plant colonization studies in two fragmented landscapes in central Belgium. Almost all forest plant species (85%) had an extremely low success of colonizing spatially segregated new suitable forest habitats after c. 40 years. In a landscape with higher forest connectivity, colonization success was higher but still insufficient to ensure large‐scale colonization. Under the hypothesis of net extinction at southern range boundaries, forest plant species dispersal limitation will prevent net colonization at northern range boundaries required for range conservation.

Changing conservation strategies in Europe: a framework integrating ecosystem services and dynamics

“…In particular, they will vary in magnitude and consequence when the various threats are synergistic. For example, anthropogenic climate change is synergistic with, among other things, landscape fragmentation, stimulating or preventing species dispersal and changing population dynamics (Honnay et al 2002;Tscharntke et al 2005;Vollhardt et al 2007;Hannah et al 2007). Similarly, land use change and invasive species may interact synergistically in their effects on native species decline (Didham et al 2007).…”

Distribution of vascular plant species in woodland patches of Ojców National Park (southern Poland) in relation to seed dispersal

“…Low moisture of the litter layer and soil do not usually facilitate woodland species growth, hence preventing the colonization of such sites by these plants [12]. Soil type, composition and reaction have been shown to affect species distribution patterns in woodlands [9,46,49,50]. It is regarded that soil type may facilitate or hinder forest regeneration.…”

Environmental Impacts—Terrestrial Ecosystems

“…In the North Sea region, substantial average northward shifts have been well-documented for birds, butterflies, moths, dragonflies and damselflies, but mostly with large numbers of species also showing no shift or even retreating northern range boundaries (Parmesan 2006). Among the well-studied groups, plant ranges show the smallest responses to recent climate change, at least in lowland areas, probably because of their limited capacity to disperse and colonise new habitats in highly-fragmented landscapes (Honnay et al 2002;Bertrand et al 2011;Doxford and Freckleton 2012). Analyses of community composition, however, show substantial increases in warm-adapted vascular plants and epiphytic lichens across the Netherlands, which have probably been partly driven by climate change (van Herk et al 2002;Tamis et al 2005).…”

“…Unlike mountain forest with short migration distances, there is some evidence that in lowland forests plant distribution changes will lag behind climate warming (Bertrand et al 2011). Observational (Honnay et al 2002) and modelling studies suggest that this is probably due to dispersal limitation resulting from forest habitat fragmentation in lowlands. Where significant range shifts of forest herbs northward and eastward have been documented, such as for the oceanic annual woodland herb climbing corydalis Ceratocapnos claviculata, it is questionable whether this is due to climate change or to other drivers such as eutrophication or assisted migration through the international timber trade (Voss et al 2012).…”