Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND

Link, P.; Tol, Richard S.J.

doi:10.1007/s10258-004-0033-z

Cited by 62 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The essential features are outlined below. Version 2.8n differs from version 2.8 (Link and Tol 2004) in that version 2.8n resolves 207 countries; while version 2.8 has only 16 aggregated regions. Essentially, FUND2.8n consists of a set of exogenous scenarios on which impacts are calculated.…”

Section: The Impact Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Population and economic growth follow the FUND scenario, which is close to the IS92a scenario (Leggett et al 1992). Carbon dioxide concentrations, global mean temperature and sea-level rise are calculated with the FUND2.8 model (Link and Tol 2004).…”

Section: The Impact Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The population and per capita income scenarios used are the FUND scenarios as shown up to 2300 in Table 2 (Link and Tol 2004). These projections are for 16 world regions.…”

Section: The Impact Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND

2008

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The threat of an abrupt and extreme rise in sea level is widely discussed in the media, but little understood in practise, especially the likely impacts of such a rise including a potential adaptation response. This paper explores for the first time the global impacts of extreme sea-level rise, triggered by a hypothetical collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). As the potential contributions remain uncertain, a wide range of scenarios are explored: WAIS contributions to sea-level rise of between 0.5 and 5 m/century. Together with other business-as-usual sea-level contributions, in the worst case this gives an approximately 6-m rise of global-mean sea level from 2030 to 2130. Global exposure to extreme sea-level rise is significant: it is estimated that roughly 400 million people (or about 8% of global population) are threatened by a 5-m rise in sea level, just based on 1995 data. The coastal module within the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) model is tuned with global data on coastal zone characteristics concerning population, land areas and land use, and then used for impact analysis under the extreme sea-level rise scenarios. The model considers the interaction of (dry)land loss, wetland loss, protection costs and human displacement, assuming perfect adaptation based on cost-benefit analysis. Unlike earlier analyses, response costs are represented in a non- linear manner, including a sensitivity analysis based on response costs. It is found that much of the world's coast would be abandoned given these extreme scenarios, although according to the global model, significant lengths of the world's coast are worth defending even in the most extreme case. This suggests that actual population displacement would be a small fraction of the potential population displacement, and is consistent with the present distribution of coastal population, which is heavily concentrated in specific areas. Hence, a partial defence can protect most of the world's coastal population. However, protection costs rise substantially diverting large amounts of investment from other sectors, and large areas of (dry)land and coastal wetlands are still predicted to be lost. Detailed case studies of the WAIS collapse in the Netherlands, Thames Estuary and the Rhone delta suggest greater abandonment than shown by the global model, probably because the model assumes perfect implementation of coastal protection and does not account for negative feedbacks when implementation is imperfect. The significant impacts found in the global model together with the potential for greater impacts as found in the detailed case studies shows that the response to abrupt sea-level rise is worthy of further research.Climatic Change (2008) 91:171-191 DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9424-

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Section: The Impact Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: The Impact Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND

2008

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“…Such policies are currently difficult to quantify (Manning et al, 2004;. Assessment of the likely impacts of an abrupt Atlantic MOC shut-down on different economic and social sectors in Europe has been made using integrated assessment models, e.g., FUND (Tol, 2002(Tol, , 2006Link and Tol, 2004). Results suggest that the repercussions for socioeconomic factors are likely to be less severe than was previously thought.…”

Section: Thermohaline Circulation Changes In the North Atlantic: Possmentioning

confidence: 99%

A klímaváltozás emberi jogi aspektusai

Kondorosi¹

2013

JEL-KÉP

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“…For diarrhoea we follow Link and Tol (2004), who report the estimated relationship between mortality and morbidity on the one hand and temperature and per capita income on the other, using the WHO Global Burden of Disease data (Murray and Lopez, 1996). Martens (1997) reports the results of a meta-analysis of changes in cardiovascular and respiratory mortality for 17 countries.…”

Section: Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

La valoración económica de cambios en servicios del ecosistema: Una aplicación de la metodología CGE

Bosello

Eboli

Parrado

et al. 2011

EARN

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<span>The present study integrates Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling with biodiversity services, proposing a possible methodology for assessing climate-change impacts on ecosystems. The assessment focuses on climate change impacts on carbon sequestration services provided by European forest, cropland and grassland ecosystems and on provisioning services, but provided by forest and cropland ecosystems only. To do this via a CGE model it is necessary to identify first the role that these ecosystem services play in marketable transactions; then how climate change can impact these services; and finally how the economic system reacts to those changes by adjusting demand and supply across sectors, domestically and internationally.</span>

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Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of FUND

Cited by 62 publications

References 35 publications

Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND

Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND

A klímaváltozás emberi jogi aspektusai

La valoración económica de cambios en servicios del ecosistema: Una aplicación de la metodología CGE

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