Possible association of stratospheric aerosols and El Nino type events

Abstract

To determine whether the 1982/83 El Nino event and the eruption of El Chichon in April 1982 are related, eleven similar eruptions at low latitudes (<20°, tropical) between 1868 and 1980 were analyzed for subsequent warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The composite result using superposed epoch analysis show a significant warming of the sea surface temperatures in the region 0°‐10°S, 90° ‐180°W. The results are also consistent with the statistical dynamical model calculations of MacCracken and Luther which indicate atmospheric circulation changes similar to those thought to lead to an El Nino type event within a few seasons after the establishment of an El Chichon type aerosol. In addition the composite behavior of twenty eruptions at high latitudes (extratropical, >20°) show just the opposite behavior. They show significant cooling of the sea surface temperatures in this region especially in the fourth and fifth season after the eruption. The association is found to be significant at the 95% level.

Volcanic and Solar Forcing of the Tropical Pacific over the Past 1000 Years

“…(ii) An empirical analysis of proxy-based reconstructions over the past 3 centuries (Adams et al, 2003) finds statistical evidence for a tendency for El Niño conditions during the first few years following explosive tropical volcanic eruptions (with a tendency for a subsequent rebound into La Niña conditions). This evidence seems to substantiate previous claims of a relationship between tropical volcanic eruptions and El Niño events based on the relatively short instrumental record (Handler, 1984) though such claims are controversial (e.g. Nicholls, 1990;Robock, 2000).…”

Threshold of the volcanic forcing that leads the El Niño-like warming in the last millennium: results from the ERIK simulation

“…Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject stratospheric sulfate aerosol into the atmosphere, which scatters the incoming solar radiation into the stratosphere, and plays a role in reducing the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface (Robock 2000). Subsequently, the reduction of solar forcing caused by explosive volcanic eruptions is able to change the mean state of the tropical Pacific toward the El Niño-like warming from proxies (Handler 1984;Adams et al 2003;D'Arrigo et al 2009;Wilson et al 2010;Shaheen et al 2013) and modeling studies (Mann et al 2005;Emile-Geay et al 2008;McGregor et al 2010;Landrum et al 2013;Ohba et al 2013). The paleo-climate data and a long term simulation of coupled ocean-atmosphere models indicate that the volcanic forcings influence the tropical Pacific Ocean in a manner similar to that of the period of solar irradiance minima (Santer et al 2001;Gu and Adler 2011;Li et al 2013).…”

The Effect of Explosive Tropical Volcanism on ENSO

“…The relationship between explosive volcanism and ENSO was first discussed in the controversial study by Handler (1984). The proposed relationship was based on a temporal correlation between both phenomena.…”