Possibilistic Approach for Travel Time Reliability Evaluation

Abstract

Travel time estimation & reliability evaluation of any means of transportation in every type of travel mode- land, rail, sea and air has been of immense interest of the researchers; primarily due to growing economic concern in the field of logistics & passenger movement. In situations like quantitative data inaccessibility or data imprecision, fuzzy set based possibilistic approach is recognized as a practical choice in obtaining the reliability estimates. This paper proposes and advocates possibilistic approach for travel time reliability computation of any type transportation vehicle under fuzzy type of data. The proposed approach is a novel way of computing the travel time & obtaining the related reliability value. Initially, the paper proposes the general methodology for travel time reliability evaluation. Individual travel time components of a transportation vehicle are considered as fuzzy; as a result, travel time is modelled as a fuzzy variable. Travel time reliability of a transportation vehicle has been defined with the help of possibilistic measures. The proposed procedure is then demonstrated with an application to marine vessel carrying the bulk. After illustration of the proposed methodology, sensitivity analysis is carried out. The paper ends with the comments on comparative features of the three cases.

Reliability Evaluation and Prediction Method with Small Samples

“…The neural network is then used to predict the optimal software release time. Gaonkar et al (2021) proposed a possibility method for calculating travel time reliability for any type of transportation vehicle under fuzzy type of data. Küçüker and Yet (2022) proposed a Bayesian network (BN) modeling framework that systematically combines design lifetime estimates, operational data, and expert judgment for reliability prediction of aircraft subsystems.…”