Positive tipping points in a rapidly warming world

Tàbara, J. David; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Hölscher, Katharina; Pedde, Simona; Kok, Kasper; Lamperti, Francesco; Christensen, J. H.; Jäger, Jill; Berry, Pam

doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2018.01.012

Cited by 113 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…To limit the extent of climate change, there is a widely recognized need to tip accelerated uptake of more sustainable innovations [29,30] and early warning indicators could be used to inform when to intervene. In the energy sector, the incumbent regime of fossil fuels as backstop energy source is reinforced by subsidies and economic lock-in effects, but an alternative sustainable energy regime could also be stable, and technology transfer and an increasing carbon price could tip the energy transition [91].…”

Section: Deliberate Tippingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This causal coupling and the resulting feedbacks can produce further tipping points [25], both realized [26] and potential [10]. Here, I argue that we can use our knowledge of tipping dynamics both to better risk-manage undesirable tipping points [27,28] and to help tip positive change [29,30], and the need for both is clear: climate change and biosphere degradation have advanced to the point where some damaging tipping points are unavoidable and avoiding others will require finding and triggering positive tipping points towards sustainability. The following sections define tipping points, consider their coupling across systems and scales, their potential for early warning signals, and how that knowledge could be combined to deliberately tip positive change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tipping positive change

Lenton

2020

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Tipping points exist in social, ecological and climate systems and those systems are increasingly causally intertwined in the Anthropocene. Climate change and biosphere degradation have advanced to the point where we are already triggering damaging environmental tipping points, and to avoid worse ones ahead will require finding and triggering positive tipping points towards sustainability in coupled social, ecological and technological systems. To help with that I outline how tipping points can occur in continuous dynamical systems and in networks, the causal interactions that can occur between tipping events across different types and scales of system—including the conditions required to trigger tipping cascades, the potential for early warning signals of tipping points, and how they could inform deliberate tipping of positive change. In particular, the same methods that can provide early warning of damaging environmental tipping points can be used to detect when a socio-technical or socio-ecological system is most sensitive to being deliberately tipped in a desirable direction. I provide some example targets for such deliberate tipping of positive change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

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Section: Deliberate Tippingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tipping positive change

Lenton

2020

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…In order to achieve the goal of limiting global warming to no more than 1.5 • C, massive concerted actions on the political, societal, and individual levels are necessary [21,108]. School can enhance not only cognitive, but also motivational and behavioral competences of students [15][16][17].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Still Green at Fifteen? Investigating Environmental Awareness of the PISA 2015 Population: Cross-National Differences and Correlates

et al. 2020

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The PISA studies provide unique opportunities to investigate the competencies and attitudes of 15-year-olds across the world. Past research investigating environmental awareness (EA) in PISA 2006 found associations between EA and science-related competencies and attitudes. Investigating EA in the PISA studies may have important implications for education for sustainable development (ESD): results may show which factors should be considered in educational interventions to enhance students’ EA. Cross-national analyses of EA may provide insights into the predictors of EA on a local, national or international level. This study investigates the individual, school, and country level predictors of EA in PISA 2015 (365,194 students, 12,594 schools, 53 countries). The multi-level regression analysis on EA reveals that most of the variance is located at the student level. On the individual level, variables related to science learning in school are associated with EA across all countries. This study also compares the degrees of EA in the 2006 and 2015 populations. The results show similar degrees of EA in 2006 and 2015. Altogether, the study provides cross-country evidence on important aspects that should be addressed in successful ESD programs.

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“…Beyond the natural sciences, the notion of adaptation tipping points is used to assess under what conditions policies are no longer able to achieve their objectives, requiring additional action (Kwadijk et al 2010, Werners et al 2013. In the transformation and transition literature, tipping points indicate transformative changes in adaptation or mitigation strategies (Wise et al 2014, David Tàbara et al 2018, Farmer et al 2019. Besides their scientific use, tipping points have become a popular metaphor to communicate climate change impacts and their far-reaching consequences to a wider audience (Russill andNyssa 2009, van der Hel et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research

Ginkel

Botzen

Haasnoot

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Tipping points have become a key concept in research on climate change, indicating points of abrupt transition in biophysical systems as well as transformative changes in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the potential existence of tipping points in socio-economic systems has remained underexplored, whereas they might be highly policy relevant. This paper describes characteristics of climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs) to guide future research on SETPS to inform climate policy. We review existing literature to create a tipping point typology and to derive the following SETP definition: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. Through stakeholder consultation, we identify 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these are described in higher detail to identify their tipping point characteristics (stable states, mechanisms and abrupt change): the collapse of winter sports tourism, farmland abandonment and sea-level rise-induced migration. We find that stakeholder perceptions play an important role in describing SETPs. The role of climate drivers is difficult to isolate from other drivers because of complex interplays with socio-economic factors. In some cases, the rate of change rather than the magnitude of change causes a tipping point. The clearest SETPs are found on small system scales. On a national to continental scale, SETPs are less obvious because they are difficult to separate from their associated economic substitution effects and policy response. Some proposed adaptation measures are so transformative that their implementations can be considered an SETP in terms of 'response to climate change'. Future research can focus on identification and impact analysis of tipping points using stylized models, on the exceedance of stakeholder-defined critical thresholds in the RCP/SSP space and on the macro-economic impacts of new system states.

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Positive tipping points in a rapidly warming world

Cited by 113 publications

References 54 publications

Tipping positive change

Tipping positive change

Still Green at Fifteen? Investigating Environmental Awareness of the PISA 2015 Population: Cross-National Differences and Correlates

Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research

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